Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.232.46safe0.27–2.200.37–2.080.64–4.28safer0.02–2.460.14–2.310.16–4.76
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.399.05safe2.80–6.522.65–6.135.45–12.66safer2.31–7.012.18–6.604.49–13.61
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3512.8627.20safe10.42–18.279.29–16.4219.72–34.69safer9.33–19.368.33–17.3817.67–36.74
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.557.6016.15safe5.61–11.494.92–10.2810.53–21.78safer4.78–12.324.19–11.028.96–23.34
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.412.826.23safe1.53–5.291.17–4.482.70–9.77safer0.98–5.830.68–4.971.66–10.80
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.469.76safe3.09–7.512.46–6.465.55–13.97safer2.51–8.091.93–6.994.44–15.08
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.7351.89safe42.94–56.5245.10–58.67safer41.27–58.1943.43–60.35
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction410416826safe343–477349–482692–959safer325–495332–500656–995
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction65.6369.60safe61.60–69.6665.28–73.93safer60.31–70.9663.97–75.24
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1015.2930.39safe12.27–17.9412.34–18.2324.61–36.17safer11.51–18.7011.59–18.9823.10–37.68
Offsides
35%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.134.03safe0.74–3.061.04–3.221.78–6.29safer0.44–3.360.75–3.511.19–6.88
Yellow cards
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.775.17safe1.35–3.451.64–3.902.99–7.35safer1.09–3.721.35–4.192.44–7.91
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.150.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.340.00–0.64safer0.00–0.450.00–0.470.00–0.92
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.516.57safe1.62–4.491.95–5.073.58–9.56safer1.23–4.881.53–5.492.76–10.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.52 2.31–7.01 | 4.39 2.65–6.13 2.18–6.60 | 9.05 5.45–12.66 4.49–13.61 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 12.86 9.29–16.42 8.33–17.38 | 27.20 19.72–34.69 17.67–36.74 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 5.61–11.49 4.78–12.32 | 7.60 4.92–10.28 4.19–11.02 | 16.15 10.53–21.78 8.96–23.34 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.53–5.29 0.98–5.83 | 2.82 1.17–4.48 0.68–4.97 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 51% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.51 2.51–8.09 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–6.99 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.73 42.94–56.52 41.27–58.19 | 51.89 45.10–58.67 43.43–60.35 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 410 343–477 325–495 | 416 349–482 332–500 | 826 692–959 656–995 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.63 61.60–69.66 60.31–70.96 | 69.60 65.28–73.93 63.97–75.24 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 15.10 12.27–17.94 11.51–18.70 | 15.29 12.34–18.23 11.59–18.98 | 30.39 24.61–36.17 23.10–37.68 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 2.13 1.04–3.22 0.75–3.51 | 4.03 1.78–6.29 1.19–6.88 | 35% 20% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.35–3.45 1.09–3.72 | 2.77 1.64–3.90 1.35–4.19 | 5.17 2.99–7.35 2.44–7.91 | 35% 18% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 3.51 1.95–5.07 1.53–5.49 | 6.57 3.58–9.56 2.76–10.37 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.