Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
24%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.752.89safe0.17–2.110.89–2.601.06–4.71safer0.00–2.360.66–2.830.58–5.19
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.929.04safe2.25–5.983.18–6.665.43–12.64safer1.76–6.472.71–7.134.47–13.60
Total shots
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1113.4825.60safe8.19–16.049.92–17.0518.11–33.08safer7.10–17.138.96–18.0116.06–35.14
Shots in box
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction6.749.5516.29safe3.80–9.696.87–12.2310.67–21.91safer2.97–10.516.13–12.979.10–23.48
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.154.207.35safe1.27–5.032.55–5.863.82–10.89safer0.73–5.582.06–6.352.78–11.93
Corners
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.395.199.58safe2.18–6.603.19–7.195.37–13.80safer1.60–7.182.66–7.734.26–14.91
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.6658.64safe34.87–48.4551.86–65.43safer33.20–50.1250.18–67.10
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction361519880safe294–429452–585746–1014safer276–447435–603711–1050
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction67.9479.72safe63.91–71.9775.40–84.04safer62.61–73.2674.09–85.35
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2612.9928.25safe12.42–18.0910.05–15.9422.47–34.03safer11.66–18.859.30–16.6920.96–35.53
Offsides
20%
18%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.624.12safe0.33–2.651.53–3.721.86–6.37safer0.03–2.951.24–4.011.28–6.96
Yellow cards
44%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.144.47safe1.28–3.381.01–3.272.29–6.65safer1.02–3.650.72–3.561.74–7.21
Red cards
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.936.18safe1.81–4.681.38–4.493.19–9.17safer1.42–5.070.95–4.912.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.75 0.89–2.60 0.66–2.83 | 2.89 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.19 | 25% 24% 52% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.98 1.76–6.47 | 4.92 3.18–6.66 2.71–7.13 | 9.04 5.43–12.64 4.47–13.60 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.11 8.19–16.04 7.10–17.13 | 13.48 9.92–17.05 8.96–18.01 | 25.60 18.11–33.08 16.06–35.14 | 36% 57% |
| Shots in box | 6.74 3.80–9.69 2.97–10.51 | 9.55 6.87–12.23 6.13–12.97 | 16.29 10.67–21.91 9.10–23.48 | 21% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.27–5.03 0.73–5.58 | 4.20 2.55–5.86 2.06–6.35 | 7.35 3.82–10.89 2.78–11.93 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 4.39 2.18–6.60 1.60–7.18 | 5.19 3.19–7.19 2.66–7.73 | 9.58 5.37–13.80 4.26–14.91 | 34% 54% |
| Possession % | 41.66 34.87–48.45 33.20–50.12 | 58.64 51.86–65.43 50.18–67.10 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 361 294–429 276–447 | 519 452–585 435–603 | 880 746–1014 711–1050 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.94 63.91–71.97 62.61–73.26 | 79.72 75.40–84.04 74.09–85.35 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 15.26 12.42–18.09 11.66–18.85 | 12.99 10.05–15.94 9.30–16.69 | 28.25 22.47–34.03 20.96–35.53 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.03–2.95 | 2.62 1.53–3.72 1.24–4.01 | 4.12 1.86–6.37 1.28–6.96 | 20% 18% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 2.33 1.28–3.38 1.02–3.65 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 4.47 2.29–6.65 1.74–7.21 | 44% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 13% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.25 1.81–4.68 1.42–5.07 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.91 | 6.18 3.19–9.17 2.38–9.99 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.