Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
26%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction0.901.542.43safe0.00–1.860.68–2.390.61–4.26safer0.00–2.120.45–2.620.13–4.74
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.548.08safe1.68–5.402.80–6.294.48–11.69safer1.19–5.892.33–6.753.52–12.64
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1212.3023.42safe7.19–15.048.74–15.8615.93–30.90safer6.10–16.137.78–16.8213.88–32.95
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.618.1414.75safe3.66–9.555.46–10.829.12–20.37safer2.84–10.384.72–11.567.56–21.94
Blocked shots
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.656.20safe0.67–4.441.99–5.302.67–9.74safer0.13–4.981.50–5.791.63–10.77
Corners
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.838.77safe1.72–6.152.83–6.834.55–12.98safer1.15–6.722.30–7.363.45–14.09
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.4463.32safe30.65–44.2356.53–70.10safer28.98–45.9054.86–71.77
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction290513802safe222–357446–579668–936safer204–375429–597633–971
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction58.6175.37safe54.59–62.6471.04–79.69safer53.29–63.9469.73–81.00
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9413.7130.65safe14.11–19.7810.76–16.6524.87–36.44safer13.35–20.5410.02–17.4023.37–37.94
Offsides
52%
20%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.563.77safe1.05–3.370.47–2.651.51–6.02safer0.75–3.670.18–2.940.92–6.61
Yellow cards
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.535.26safe1.68–3.781.40–3.663.08–7.43safer1.41–4.041.11–3.952.52–7.99
Red cards
17%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction0.220.160.38safe0.06–0.380.00–0.350.03–0.73safer0.00–0.530.00–0.480.00–1.01
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.535.53safe1.56–4.430.97–4.092.54–8.52safer1.17–4.820.55–4.511.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.90 0.00–1.86 0.00–2.12 | 1.54 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.13–4.74 | 22% 26% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.54 1.68–5.40 1.19–5.89 | 4.54 2.80–6.29 2.33–6.75 | 8.08 4.48–11.69 3.52–12.64 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.12 7.19–15.04 6.10–16.13 | 12.30 8.74–15.86 7.78–16.82 | 23.42 15.93–30.90 13.88–32.95 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 6.61 3.66–9.55 2.84–10.38 | 8.14 5.46–10.82 4.72–11.56 | 14.75 9.12–20.37 7.56–21.94 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 0.67–4.44 0.13–4.98 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 6.20 2.67–9.74 1.63–10.77 | 26% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 3.94 1.72–6.15 1.15–6.72 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.36 | 8.77 4.55–12.98 3.45–14.09 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Possession % | 37.44 30.65–44.23 28.98–45.90 | 63.32 56.53–70.10 54.86–71.77 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 290 222–357 204–375 | 513 446–579 429–597 | 802 668–936 633–971 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.61 54.59–62.64 53.29–63.94 | 75.37 71.04–79.69 69.73–81.00 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 16.94 14.11–19.78 13.35–20.54 | 13.71 10.76–16.65 10.02–17.40 | 30.65 24.87–36.44 23.37–37.94 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.75–3.67 | 1.56 0.47–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.77 1.51–6.02 0.92–6.61 | 52% 20% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.73 1.68–3.78 1.41–4.04 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 5.26 3.08–7.43 2.52–7.99 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.22 0.06–0.38 0.00–0.53 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.38 0.03–0.73 0.00–1.01 | 17% 71% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 2.53 0.97–4.09 0.55–4.51 | 5.53 2.54–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 49% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.