Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.732.80safe0.10–2.040.87–2.580.97–4.62safer0.00–2.290.64–2.810.49–5.10
Shots on target
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.695.319.00safe1.83–5.553.57–7.055.40–12.61safer1.34–6.043.10–7.524.44–13.56
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8415.1425.97safe6.91–14.7611.57–18.7018.49–33.46safer5.82–15.8510.61–19.6616.43–35.51
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.199.3816.57safe4.25–10.136.70–12.0610.95–22.20safer3.42–10.965.96–12.809.38–23.76
Blocked shots
33%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.516.41safe1.02–4.781.86–5.162.87–9.94safer0.47–5.321.36–5.661.84–10.98
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.305.659.95safe2.09–6.523.65–7.655.74–14.17safer1.52–7.093.12–8.184.63–15.27
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction41.8658.58safe35.07–48.6551.79–65.36safer33.40–50.3250.12–67.03
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction370500870safe303–437434–567737–1004safer285–456416–584701–1040
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction61.7374.80safe57.70–65.7670.48–79.13safer56.41–67.0669.17–80.44
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0412.9227.96safe12.21–17.889.97–15.8622.18–33.74safer11.45–18.649.23–16.6120.68–35.25
Offsides
64%
15%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.321.995.31safe2.16–4.480.90–3.093.06–7.57safer1.86–4.780.61–3.372.47–8.16
Yellow cards
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.994.26safe1.22–3.320.86–3.122.08–6.44safer0.95–3.580.57–3.411.52–7.00
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.110.27safe0.00–0.320.00–0.300.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.430.00–0.90
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.516.08safe2.13–5.000.96–4.073.08–9.07safer1.74–5.390.53–4.492.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.73 0.87–2.58 0.64–2.81 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 23% 24% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.69 1.83–5.55 1.34–6.04 | 5.31 3.57–7.05 3.10–7.52 | 9.00 5.40–12.61 4.44–13.56 | 24% 65% |
| Total shots | 10.84 6.91–14.76 5.82–15.85 | 15.14 11.57–18.70 10.61–19.66 | 25.97 18.49–33.46 16.43–35.51 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 7.19 4.25–10.13 3.42–10.96 | 9.38 6.70–12.06 5.96–12.80 | 16.57 10.95–22.20 9.38–23.76 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 1.02–4.78 0.47–5.32 | 3.51 1.86–5.16 1.36–5.66 | 6.41 2.87–9.94 1.84–10.98 | 33% 16% 52% |
| Corners | 4.30 2.09–6.52 1.52–7.09 | 5.65 3.65–7.65 3.12–8.18 | 9.95 5.74–14.17 4.63–15.27 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 41.86 35.07–48.65 33.40–50.32 | 58.58 51.79–65.36 50.12–67.03 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 370 303–437 285–456 | 500 434–567 416–584 | 870 737–1004 701–1040 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.73 57.70–65.76 56.41–67.06 | 74.80 70.48–79.13 69.17–80.44 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 15.04 12.21–17.88 11.45–18.64 | 12.92 9.97–15.86 9.23–16.61 | 27.96 22.18–33.74 20.68–35.25 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 3.32 2.16–4.48 1.86–4.78 | 1.99 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.37 | 5.31 3.06–7.57 2.47–8.16 | 64% 15% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 1.22–3.32 0.95–3.58 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.26 2.08–6.44 1.52–7.00 | 45% 20% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.56 2.13–5.00 1.74–5.39 | 2.51 0.96–4.07 0.53–4.49 | 6.08 3.08–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+