Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.232.49safe0.29–2.220.38–2.080.66–4.31safer0.04–2.470.15–2.310.18–4.79
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.964.058.01safe2.10–5.822.31–5.794.40–11.61safer1.61–6.311.84–6.263.45–12.57
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9712.4325.40safe9.05–16.908.86–15.9917.91–32.89safer7.96–17.997.90–16.9515.86–34.94
Shots in box
45%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.677.6315.30safe4.73–10.614.95–10.319.68–20.92safer3.90–11.444.21–11.058.11–22.49
Blocked shots
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.016.01safe1.12–4.891.35–4.662.47–9.54safer0.58–5.430.86–5.151.44–10.58
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.408.99safe2.37–6.802.40–6.404.78–13.20safer1.80–7.371.87–6.943.67–14.31
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.3545.85safe47.56–61.1439.06–52.63safer45.89–62.8137.39–54.30
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction450359809safe383–517292–425675–942safer365–535275–443639–978
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction65.1365.84safe61.10–69.1661.52–70.17safer59.81–70.4560.21–71.48
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8915.2830.17safe12.05–17.7312.34–18.2324.39–35.95safer11.30–18.4811.59–18.9722.89–37.46
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.933.90safe0.81–3.130.83–3.021.65–6.15safer0.51–3.430.55–3.311.06–6.74
Yellow cards
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.812.645.44safe1.76–3.861.51–3.773.27–7.62safer1.49–4.121.22–4.062.71–8.18
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.130.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.450.00–0.91
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.822.795.61safe1.39–4.261.23–4.342.62–8.61safer1.00–4.650.81–4.771.81–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.22 0.04–2.47 | 1.23 0.38–2.08 0.15–2.31 | 2.49 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 3.96 2.10–5.82 1.61–6.31 | 4.05 2.31–5.79 1.84–6.26 | 8.01 4.40–11.61 3.45–12.57 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.97 9.05–16.90 7.96–17.99 | 12.43 8.86–15.99 7.90–16.95 | 25.40 17.91–32.89 15.86–34.94 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.67 4.73–10.61 3.90–11.44 | 7.63 4.95–10.31 4.21–11.05 | 15.30 9.68–20.92 8.11–22.49 | 45% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.12–4.89 0.58–5.43 | 3.01 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 6.01 2.47–9.54 1.44–10.58 | 42% 17% 42% |
| Corners | 4.59 2.37–6.80 1.80–7.37 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.87–6.94 | 8.99 4.78–13.20 3.67–14.31 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 54.35 47.56–61.14 45.89–62.81 | 45.85 39.06–52.63 37.39–54.30 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 450 383–517 365–535 | 359 292–425 275–443 | 809 675–942 639–978 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.13 61.10–69.16 59.81–70.45 | 65.84 61.52–70.17 60.21–71.48 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 14.89 12.05–17.73 11.30–18.48 | 15.28 12.34–18.23 11.59–18.97 | 30.17 24.39–35.95 22.89–37.46 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.93 0.83–3.02 0.55–3.31 | 3.90 1.65–6.15 1.06–6.74 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.81 1.76–3.86 1.49–4.12 | 2.64 1.51–3.77 1.22–4.06 | 5.44 3.27–7.62 2.71–8.18 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.81–4.77 | 5.61 2.62–8.61 1.81–9.42 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+