Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.262.57safe0.34–2.280.41–2.110.75–4.39safer0.09–2.530.18–2.340.27–4.87
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.404.228.62safe2.54–6.262.48–5.975.02–12.23safer2.05–6.752.02–6.434.06–13.18
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8411.8425.68safe9.92–17.778.27–15.4018.19–33.17safer8.83–18.867.31–16.3616.14–35.22
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.567.6416.20safe5.62–11.504.96–10.3210.58–21.83safer4.79–12.334.22–11.069.01–23.39
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.956.72safe1.89–5.651.30–4.603.18–10.26safer1.35–6.200.80–5.092.15–11.29
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.4010.07safe3.46–7.892.40–6.405.86–14.28safer2.89–8.461.86–6.934.75–15.39
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.9443.25safe50.15–63.7336.47–50.04safer48.48–65.4034.80–51.71
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction439303741safe372–506236–369608–875safer353–524219–387572–911
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction65.6663.98safe61.63–69.6959.66–68.31safer60.34–70.9858.35–69.62
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8615.8129.68safe11.03–16.7012.87–18.7623.89–35.46safer10.27–17.4612.12–19.5022.39–36.96
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.933.59safe0.49–2.810.84–3.031.33–5.84safer0.19–3.120.55–3.310.74–6.43
Yellow cards
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.885.33safe1.40–3.491.75–4.013.15–7.51safer1.13–3.761.46–4.302.59–8.06
Red cards
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.160.30safe0.00–0.300.00–0.350.00–0.65safer0.00–0.450.00–0.480.00–0.93
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.005.77safe1.34–4.211.44–4.552.78–8.77safer0.95–4.601.02–4.981.97–9.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.26 0.41–2.11 0.18–2.34 | 2.57 0.75–4.39 0.27–4.87 | 38% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.26 2.05–6.75 | 4.22 2.48–5.97 2.02–6.43 | 8.62 5.02–12.23 4.06–13.18 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.84 9.92–17.77 8.83–18.86 | 11.84 8.27–15.40 7.31–16.36 | 25.68 18.19–33.17 16.14–35.22 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 5.62–11.50 4.79–12.33 | 7.64 4.96–10.32 4.22–11.06 | 16.20 10.58–21.83 9.01–23.39 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.89–5.65 1.35–6.20 | 2.95 1.30–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 6.72 3.18–10.26 2.15–11.29 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.67 3.46–7.89 2.89–8.46 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.86–6.93 | 10.07 5.86–14.28 4.75–15.39 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 56.94 50.15–63.73 48.48–65.40 | 43.25 36.47–50.04 34.80–51.71 | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 439 372–506 353–524 | 303 236–369 219–387 | 741 608–875 572–911 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.66 61.63–69.69 60.34–70.98 | 63.98 59.66–68.31 58.35–69.62 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 13.86 11.03–16.70 10.27–17.46 | 15.81 12.87–18.76 12.12–19.50 | 29.68 23.89–35.46 22.39–36.96 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.12 | 1.93 0.84–3.03 0.55–3.31 | 3.59 1.33–5.84 0.74–6.43 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.40–3.49 1.13–3.76 | 2.88 1.75–4.01 1.46–4.30 | 5.33 3.15–7.51 2.59–8.06 | 34% 17% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 76% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.00 1.44–4.55 1.02–4.98 | 5.77 2.78–8.77 1.97–9.58 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.