Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
28%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.340.972.32safe0.38–2.310.12–1.830.50–4.14safer0.13–2.560.00–2.060.02–4.62
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.743.408.14safe2.88–6.611.66–5.144.54–11.75safer2.39–7.091.19–5.613.58–12.70
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2110.4824.69safe10.29–18.146.92–14.0417.21–32.18safer9.19–19.235.96–15.0015.15–34.23
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction8.916.1015.01safe5.96–11.853.42–8.789.38–20.63safer5.13–12.682.68–9.527.82–22.20
Blocked shots
54%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.776.32safe1.68–5.441.11–4.422.79–9.86safer1.13–5.980.62–4.911.75–10.89
Corners
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.529.25safe3.52–7.941.52–5.525.04–13.47safer2.94–8.520.99–6.063.93–14.57
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.4949.50safe43.70–57.2842.71–56.28safer42.03–58.9541.04–57.95
Passes
51%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction408403811safe340–475337–470677–945safer322–493319–487642–980
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction64.6767.57safe60.64–68.7063.24–71.89safer59.34–69.9961.94–73.20
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7015.1029.79safe11.86–17.5312.15–18.0424.01–35.58safer11.10–18.2911.40–18.7922.51–37.08
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.673.64safe0.81–3.130.58–2.771.39–5.90safer0.51–3.430.29–3.060.80–6.49
Yellow cards
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.995.43safe1.39–3.491.86–4.123.25–7.61safer1.13–3.761.57–4.412.70–8.17
Red cards
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.29safe0.00–0.280.00–0.360.00–0.64safer0.00–0.430.00–0.490.00–0.92
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.225.65safe1.00–3.871.66–4.772.65–8.64safer0.61–4.261.23–5.201.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.38–2.31 0.13–2.56 | 0.97 0.12–1.83 0.00–2.06 | 2.32 0.50–4.14 0.02–4.62 | 45% 28% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.61 2.39–7.09 | 3.40 1.66–5.14 1.19–5.61 | 8.14 4.54–11.75 3.58–12.70 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.21 10.29–18.14 9.19–19.23 | 10.48 6.92–14.04 5.96–15.00 | 24.69 17.21–32.18 15.15–34.23 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.91 5.96–11.85 5.13–12.68 | 6.10 3.42–8.78 2.68–9.52 | 15.01 9.38–20.63 7.82–22.20 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.44 1.13–5.98 | 2.77 1.11–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 6.32 2.79–9.86 1.75–10.89 | 54% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.73 3.52–7.94 2.94–8.52 | 3.52 1.52–5.52 0.99–6.06 | 9.25 5.04–13.47 3.93–14.57 | 71% 18% |
| Possession % | 50.49 43.70–57.28 42.03–58.95 | 49.50 42.71–56.28 41.04–57.95 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 408 340–475 322–493 | 403 337–470 319–487 | 811 677–945 642–980 | 51% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.67 60.64–68.70 59.34–69.99 | 67.57 63.24–71.89 61.94–73.20 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 14.70 11.86–17.53 11.10–18.29 | 15.10 12.15–18.04 11.40–18.79 | 29.79 24.01–35.58 22.51–37.08 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.67 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.06 | 3.64 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.39–3.49 1.13–3.76 | 2.99 1.86–4.12 1.57–4.41 | 5.43 3.25–7.61 2.70–8.17 | 32% 17% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.00–3.87 0.61–4.26 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 5.65 2.65–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.