Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
28%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.332.29safe0.00–1.930.47–2.180.47–4.11safer0.00–2.180.24–2.410.00–4.59
Shots on target
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.957.47safe1.66–5.382.21–5.693.87–11.08safer1.17–5.871.74–6.162.91–12.03
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6913.4424.13safe6.76–14.619.88–17.0116.64–31.62safer5.67–15.708.92–17.9614.59–33.67
Shots in box
24%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction6.378.5514.92safe3.43–9.325.87–11.239.30–20.55safer2.60–10.145.13–11.977.73–22.11
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.176.11safe1.05–4.821.52–4.832.58–9.65safer0.51–5.361.03–5.321.54–10.68
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.979.18safe2.00–6.422.97–6.974.97–13.39safer1.42–7.002.43–7.503.86–14.50
Possession %
51%
45%
homeawayprediction50.6849.39safe43.89–57.4742.61–56.18safer42.22–59.1440.93–57.85
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction379359738safe312–446292–425604–872safer294–465275–443569–907
Pass accuracy %
26%
69%
homeawayprediction60.3564.75safe56.32–64.3860.42–69.07safer55.03–65.6759.12–70.38
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5415.4529.99safe11.71–17.3812.51–18.3924.21–35.78safer10.95–18.1411.76–19.1422.71–37.28
Offsides
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.113.47safe0.20–2.521.02–3.201.22–5.72safer0.00–2.820.73–3.490.63–6.31
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.134.44safe1.25–3.351.00–3.262.26–6.61safer0.99–3.620.71–3.551.70–7.17
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.86
GK saves
50%
18%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.355.22safe1.43–4.310.79–3.902.22–8.21safer1.05–4.690.36–4.331.41–9.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 1.33 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 2.29 0.47–4.11 0.00–4.59 | 27% 28% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.52 1.66–5.38 1.17–5.87 | 3.95 2.21–5.69 1.74–6.16 | 7.47 3.87–11.08 2.91–12.03 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Total shots | 10.69 6.76–14.61 5.67–15.70 | 13.44 9.88–17.01 8.92–17.96 | 24.13 16.64–31.62 14.59–33.67 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.37 3.43–9.32 2.60–10.14 | 8.55 5.87–11.23 5.13–11.97 | 14.92 9.30–20.55 7.73–22.11 | 24% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 1.05–4.82 0.51–5.36 | 3.17 1.52–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 6.11 2.58–9.65 1.54–10.68 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.21 2.00–6.42 1.42–7.00 | 4.97 2.97–6.97 2.43–7.50 | 9.18 4.97–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 50.68 43.89–57.47 42.22–59.14 | 49.39 42.61–56.18 40.93–57.85 | — | 51% 45% |
| Passes | 379 312–446 294–465 | 359 292–425 275–443 | 738 604–872 569–907 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.35 56.32–64.38 55.03–65.67 | 64.75 60.42–69.07 59.12–70.38 | — | 26% 69% |
| Fouls | 14.54 11.71–17.38 10.95–18.14 | 15.45 12.51–18.39 11.76–19.14 | 29.99 24.21–35.78 22.71–37.28 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.82 | 2.11 1.02–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 3.47 1.22–5.72 0.63–6.31 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.44 2.26–6.61 1.70–7.17 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.31 1.05–4.69 | 2.35 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | 5.22 2.22–8.21 1.41–9.02 | 50% 18% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.