Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.200.662.87safe1.23–3.170.00–1.521.04–4.69safer0.98–3.420.00–1.750.56–5.17
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.282.458.73safe4.41–8.140.71–4.195.12–12.33safer3.92–8.630.24–4.664.16–13.29
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction17.847.8325.68safe13.92–21.774.27–11.4018.19–33.17safer12.83–22.863.31–12.3616.14–35.22
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction12.045.2717.32safe9.10–14.982.59–7.9511.69–22.94safer8.27–15.811.85–8.6910.13–24.51
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.246.89safe2.77–6.530.58–3.893.35–10.42safer2.22–7.080.09–4.382.32–11.46
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.783.139.91safe4.57–8.991.13–5.135.70–14.13safer3.99–9.570.60–5.674.59–15.23
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.9135.96safe57.12–70.7029.18–42.75safer55.45–72.3727.51–44.42
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction580305885safe513–648238–371752–1019safer495–666221–389716–1055
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction78.5865.57safe74.55–82.6161.25–69.89safer73.26–83.9159.94–71.20
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0715.2027.27safe9.23–14.9012.25–18.1421.48–33.05safer8.47–15.6611.51–18.8919.98–34.55
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.823.48safe0.50–2.820.72–2.911.23–5.73safer0.20–3.120.44–3.200.64–6.32
Yellow cards
22%
17%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.834.53safe0.65–2.751.70–3.962.35–6.70safer0.38–3.011.41–4.251.79–7.26
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.140.22safe0.00–0.230.00–0.330.00–0.56safer0.00–0.380.00–0.460.00–0.85
GK saves
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.013.935.95safe0.58–3.452.38–5.492.95–8.94safer0.19–3.841.95–5.912.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.23–3.17 0.98–3.42 | 0.66 0.00–1.52 0.00–1.75 | 2.87 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 73% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.28 4.41–8.14 3.92–8.63 | 2.45 0.71–4.19 0.24–4.66 | 8.73 5.12–12.33 4.16–13.29 | 87% |
| Total shots | 17.84 13.92–21.77 12.83–22.86 | 7.83 4.27–11.40 3.31–12.36 | 25.68 18.19–33.17 16.14–35.22 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.04 9.10–14.98 8.27–15.81 | 5.27 2.59–7.95 1.85–8.69 | 17.32 11.69–22.94 10.13–24.51 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.53 2.22–7.08 | 2.24 0.58–3.89 0.09–4.38 | 6.89 3.35–10.42 2.32–11.46 | 77% |
| Corners | 6.78 4.57–8.99 3.99–9.57 | 3.13 1.13–5.13 0.60–5.67 | 9.91 5.70–14.13 4.59–15.23 | 84% |
| Possession % | 63.91 57.12–70.70 55.45–72.37 | 35.96 29.18–42.75 27.51–44.42 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 580 513–648 495–666 | 305 238–371 221–389 | 885 752–1019 716–1055 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.58 74.55–82.61 73.26–83.91 | 65.57 61.25–69.89 59.94–71.20 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 12.07 9.23–14.90 8.47–15.66 | 15.20 12.25–18.14 11.51–18.89 | 27.27 21.48–33.05 19.98–34.55 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.82 0.72–2.91 0.44–3.20 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.38–3.01 | 2.83 1.70–3.96 1.41–4.25 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 22% 17% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.01 0.58–3.45 0.19–3.84 | 3.93 2.38–5.49 1.95–5.91 | 5.95 2.95–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 16% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.