Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.342.89safe0.58–2.520.48–2.191.07–4.71safer0.33–2.770.26–2.420.59–5.19
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.743.968.70safe2.88–6.602.22–5.705.10–12.31safer2.39–7.091.75–6.174.14–13.26
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3710.9023.27safe8.44–16.297.34–14.4615.78–30.75safer7.35–17.386.38–15.4213.73–32.80
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.917.0916.00safe5.97–11.854.41–9.7710.38–21.63safer5.14–12.683.67–10.518.81–23.19
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.473.216.68safe1.59–5.351.56–4.873.15–10.22safer1.04–5.891.07–5.362.11–11.25
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.989.20safe3.01–7.441.98–5.984.99–13.42safer2.44–8.011.45–6.513.88–14.52
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.4550.09safe43.66–57.2443.30–56.87safer41.99–58.9141.63–58.54
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction434422856safe367–501356–489723–990safer349–520338–506687–1026
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction68.4571.73safe64.42–72.4767.40–76.05safer63.12–73.7766.09–77.36
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5114.5928.09safe10.67–16.3411.64–17.5322.31–33.87safer9.91–17.1010.89–18.2820.80–35.38
Offsides
75%
homeawaytotalprediction3.411.434.84safe2.25–4.570.34–2.522.58–7.09safer1.95–4.870.05–2.812.00–7.68
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.494.69safe1.14–3.241.36–3.622.51–6.86safer0.88–3.511.07–3.911.95–7.42
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.025.79safe1.34–4.211.47–4.582.80–8.79safer0.95–4.601.04–5.001.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.60 2.39–7.09 | 3.96 2.22–5.70 1.75–6.17 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.44–16.29 7.35–17.38 | 10.90 7.34–14.46 6.38–15.42 | 23.27 15.78–30.75 13.73–32.80 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.91 5.97–11.85 5.14–12.68 | 7.09 4.41–9.77 3.67–10.51 | 16.00 10.38–21.63 8.81–23.19 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 1.59–5.35 1.04–5.89 | 3.21 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.68 3.15–10.22 2.11–11.25 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.45–6.51 | 9.20 4.99–13.42 3.88–14.52 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 50.45 43.66–57.24 41.99–58.91 | 50.09 43.30–56.87 41.63–58.54 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 434 367–501 349–520 | 422 356–489 338–506 | 856 723–990 687–1026 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.45 64.42–72.47 63.12–73.77 | 71.73 67.40–76.05 66.09–77.36 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 13.51 10.67–16.34 9.91–17.10 | 14.59 11.64–17.53 10.89–18.28 | 28.09 22.31–33.87 20.80–35.38 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 3.41 2.25–4.57 1.95–4.87 | 1.43 0.34–2.52 0.05–2.81 | 4.84 2.58–7.09 2.00–7.68 | 75% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.14–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 2.49 1.36–3.62 1.07–3.91 | 4.69 2.51–6.86 1.95–7.42 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.02 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.00 | 5.79 2.80–8.79 1.99–9.60 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.