Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
23%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.800.862.67safe0.84–2.770.01–1.720.85–4.49safer0.59–3.020.00–1.950.37–4.97
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.298.34safe3.19–6.911.54–5.034.73–11.94safer2.70–7.401.08–5.503.78–12.90
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.069.4025.45safe12.13–19.985.83–12.9617.97–32.94safer11.04–21.084.87–13.9215.92–34.99
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.415.1715.59safe7.47–13.362.49–7.859.96–21.21safer6.64–14.191.75–8.598.40–22.78
Blocked shots
66%
14%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.266.03safe1.89–5.650.61–3.922.50–9.57safer1.34–6.190.12–4.411.46–10.60
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.793.989.77safe3.58–8.011.98–5.985.56–13.99safer3.00–8.581.45–6.514.45–15.09
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction53.1247.99safe46.33–59.9141.21–54.78safer44.66–61.5839.54–56.45
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction401369769safe333–468302–435636–903safer315–486285–453600–939
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction62.7963.06safe58.76–66.8258.74–67.39safer57.47–68.1157.43–68.70
Fouls
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0714.5729.64safe12.23–17.9011.63–17.5223.86–35.42safer11.47–18.6610.88–18.2722.35–36.93
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.603.67safe0.91–3.230.51–2.691.42–5.92safer0.61–3.530.22–2.980.83–6.51
Yellow cards
30%
18%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.794.96safe1.12–3.221.66–3.922.78–7.14safer0.86–3.491.37–4.212.23–7.70
Red cards
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.160.26safe0.00–0.260.00–0.350.00–0.61safer0.00–0.410.00–0.480.00–0.89
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.273.545.81safe0.83–3.711.98–5.092.82–8.80safer0.45–4.091.56–5.522.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.59–3.02 | 0.86 0.01–1.72 0.00–1.95 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 60% 23% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.91 2.70–7.40 | 3.29 1.54–5.03 1.08–5.50 | 8.34 4.73–11.94 3.78–12.90 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.06 12.13–19.98 11.04–21.08 | 9.40 5.83–12.96 4.87–13.92 | 25.45 17.97–32.94 15.92–34.99 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 10.41 7.47–13.36 6.64–14.19 | 5.17 2.49–7.85 1.75–8.59 | 15.59 9.96–21.21 8.40–22.78 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.89–5.65 1.34–6.19 | 2.26 0.61–3.92 0.12–4.41 | 6.03 2.50–9.57 1.46–10.60 | 66% 14% 20% |
| Corners | 5.79 3.58–8.01 3.00–8.58 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.45–6.51 | 9.77 5.56–13.99 4.45–15.09 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.12 46.33–59.91 44.66–61.58 | 47.99 41.21–54.78 39.54–56.45 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 401 333–468 315–486 | 369 302–435 285–453 | 769 636–903 600–939 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.79 58.76–66.82 57.47–68.11 | 63.06 58.74–67.39 57.43–68.70 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 15.07 12.23–17.90 11.47–18.66 | 14.57 11.63–17.52 10.88–18.27 | 29.64 23.86–35.42 22.35–36.93 | 50% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 1.60 0.51–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.67 1.42–5.92 0.83–6.51 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.12–3.22 0.86–3.49 | 2.79 1.66–3.92 1.37–4.21 | 4.96 2.78–7.14 2.23–7.70 | 30% 18% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.83–3.71 0.45–4.09 | 3.54 1.98–5.09 1.56–5.52 | 5.81 2.82–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+