Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.022.60safe0.61–2.550.17–1.870.78–4.42safer0.36–2.800.00–2.100.30–4.90
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.973.598.56safe3.11–6.831.85–5.334.96–12.17safer2.62–7.321.38–5.804.00–13.12
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3610.9725.33safe10.44–18.297.40–14.5317.84–32.82safer9.35–19.386.44–15.4915.79–34.87
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.496.9015.39safe5.55–11.434.22–9.589.77–21.01safer4.72–12.263.48–10.328.20–22.58
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.812.556.36safe1.93–5.700.90–4.202.83–9.90safer1.39–6.240.40–4.691.79–10.93
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.504.319.81safe3.29–7.712.31–6.315.59–14.02safer2.71–8.291.77–6.844.49–15.13
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.7441.78safe50.95–64.5334.99–48.56safer49.28–66.2033.32–50.23
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction477327804safe410–544260–393670–937safer392–562243–411634–973
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction68.2364.28safe64.20–72.2659.96–68.60safer62.90–73.5558.65–69.91
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8717.3230.19safe10.03–15.7014.38–20.2624.41–35.97safer9.27–16.4613.63–21.0122.90–37.47
Offsides
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction1.303.174.47safe0.14–2.462.08–4.262.22–6.73safer0.00–2.761.79–4.551.63–7.31
Yellow cards
29%
18%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.152.844.99safe1.10–3.201.71–3.972.82–7.17safer0.84–3.471.42–4.262.26–7.73
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.245.92safe1.25–4.121.68–4.792.93–8.92safer0.86–4.511.25–5.222.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.55 0.36–2.80 | 1.02 0.17–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 50% 25% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.11–6.83 2.62–7.32 | 3.59 1.85–5.33 1.38–5.80 | 8.56 4.96–12.17 4.00–13.12 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.36 10.44–18.29 9.35–19.38 | 10.97 7.40–14.53 6.44–15.49 | 25.33 17.84–32.82 15.79–34.87 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.49 5.55–11.43 4.72–12.26 | 6.90 4.22–9.58 3.48–10.32 | 15.39 9.77–21.01 8.20–22.58 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.93–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 2.55 0.90–4.20 0.40–4.69 | 6.36 2.83–9.90 1.79–10.93 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.50 3.29–7.71 2.71–8.29 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.77–6.84 | 9.81 5.59–14.02 4.49–15.13 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 57.74 50.95–64.53 49.28–66.20 | 41.78 34.99–48.56 33.32–50.23 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 477 410–544 392–562 | 327 260–393 243–411 | 804 670–937 634–973 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.23 64.20–72.26 62.90–73.55 | 64.28 59.96–68.60 58.65–69.91 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 12.87 10.03–15.70 9.27–16.46 | 17.32 14.38–20.26 13.63–21.01 | 30.19 24.41–35.97 22.90–37.47 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.76 | 3.17 2.08–4.26 1.79–4.55 | 4.47 2.22–6.73 1.63–7.31 | 14% 74% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 2.84 1.71–3.97 1.42–4.26 | 4.99 2.82–7.17 2.26–7.73 | 29% 18% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.22 | 5.92 2.93–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+