Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.572.79safe0.25–2.180.72–2.420.96–4.61safer0.00–2.430.49–2.650.48–5.09
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.145.009.15safe2.28–6.003.26–6.755.54–12.75safer1.79–6.492.80–7.214.59–13.71
Total shots
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4714.4727.93safe9.54–17.3910.91–18.0320.45–35.42safer8.45–18.489.95–18.9918.40–37.47
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.008.5416.54safe5.06–10.955.86–11.2210.92–22.17safer4.23–11.775.12–11.969.35–23.73
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.676.84safe1.29–5.052.02–5.333.31–10.38safer0.74–5.591.53–5.822.27–11.41
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.739.70safe2.75–7.182.73–6.735.48–13.91safer2.18–7.752.20–7.274.38–15.02
Possession %
44%
52%
homeawayprediction49.4651.12safe42.67–56.2544.34–57.91safer41.00–57.9242.66–59.58
Passes
50%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction427426853safe360–494359–492719–986safer342–513342–510683–1022
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction65.8970.67safe61.86–69.9266.35–75.00safer60.57–71.2165.04–76.31
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2313.9130.14safe13.39–19.0710.97–16.8624.36–35.92safer12.64–19.8210.22–17.6122.85–37.43
Offsides
61%
17%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.901.764.66safe1.74–4.060.67–2.852.40–6.91safer1.43–4.360.38–3.141.81–7.50
Yellow cards
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.114.99safe1.84–3.930.98–3.242.81–7.17safer1.57–4.200.69–3.532.26–7.73
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.130.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.450.00–0.91
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.906.03safe1.69–4.561.35–4.463.03–9.02safer1.30–4.950.92–4.892.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.57 0.72–2.42 0.49–2.65 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 30% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.79–6.49 | 5.00 3.26–6.75 2.80–7.21 | 9.15 5.54–12.75 4.59–13.71 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.54–17.39 8.45–18.48 | 14.47 10.91–18.03 9.95–18.99 | 27.93 20.45–35.42 18.40–37.47 | 39% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.95 4.23–11.77 | 8.54 5.86–11.22 5.12–11.96 | 16.54 10.92–22.17 9.35–23.73 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.29–5.05 0.74–5.59 | 3.67 2.02–5.33 1.53–5.82 | 6.84 3.31–10.38 2.27–11.41 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.75–7.18 2.18–7.75 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.27 | 9.70 5.48–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 49.46 42.67–56.25 41.00–57.92 | 51.12 44.34–57.91 42.66–59.58 | — | 44% 52% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 342–513 | 426 359–492 342–510 | 853 719–986 683–1022 | 50% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.89 61.86–69.92 60.57–71.21 | 70.67 66.35–75.00 65.04–76.31 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 16.23 13.39–19.07 12.64–19.82 | 13.91 10.97–16.86 10.22–17.61 | 30.14 24.36–35.92 22.85–37.43 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.90 1.74–4.06 1.43–4.36 | 1.76 0.67–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 4.66 2.40–6.91 1.81–7.50 | 61% 17% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.88 1.84–3.93 1.57–4.20 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.99 2.81–7.17 2.26–7.73 | 55% 17% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.69–4.56 1.30–4.95 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 6.03 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.