Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
20%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.032.093.12safe0.06–1.991.24–2.941.29–4.94safer0.00–2.251.01–3.170.81–5.42
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.495.749.23safe1.63–5.354.00–7.485.62–12.83safer1.14–5.843.53–7.954.67–13.79
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4316.4826.90safe6.50–14.3512.91–20.0419.42–34.39safer5.41–15.4411.95–21.0017.37–36.44
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.6410.9517.60safe3.70–9.598.27–13.6311.97–23.22safer2.87–10.427.53–14.3710.41–24.79
Blocked shots
20%
13%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.504.156.65safe0.62–4.382.50–5.803.11–10.18safer0.07–4.922.00–6.292.08–11.22
Corners
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.946.049.97safe1.72–6.154.04–8.045.76–14.19safer1.15–6.723.50–8.574.65–15.29
Possession %
14%
84%
homeawayprediction41.7259.21safe34.92–48.5152.43–66.00safer33.26–50.1850.75–67.67
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction351488839safe283–418422–555705–973safer265–436404–572670–1008
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction58.5372.77safe54.50–62.5668.44–77.09safer53.21–63.8567.13–78.40
Fouls
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3912.8128.20safe12.55–18.239.87–15.7622.42–33.98safer11.80–18.999.12–16.5020.92–35.49
Offsides
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.215.63safe2.26–4.581.12–3.303.38–7.89safer1.96–4.880.83–3.592.79–8.47
Yellow cards
53%
19%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.591.904.49safe1.54–3.640.77–3.032.31–6.67safer1.28–3.910.48–3.321.75–7.22
Red cards
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.100.27safe0.01–0.330.00–0.290.00–0.62safer0.00–0.480.00–0.420.00–0.90
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.446.33safe2.46–5.330.88–3.993.34–9.33safer2.07–5.720.46–4.422.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–1.99 0.00–2.25 | 2.09 1.24–2.94 1.01–3.17 | 3.12 1.29–4.94 0.81–5.42 | 18% 20% 62% |
| Shots on target | 3.49 1.63–5.35 1.14–5.84 | 5.74 4.00–7.48 3.53–7.95 | 9.23 5.62–12.83 4.67–13.79 | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 10.43 6.50–14.35 5.41–15.44 | 16.48 12.91–20.04 11.95–21.00 | 26.90 19.42–34.39 17.37–36.44 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 6.64 3.70–9.59 2.87–10.42 | 10.95 8.27–13.63 7.53–14.37 | 17.60 11.97–23.22 10.41–24.79 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 2.50 0.62–4.38 0.07–4.92 | 4.15 2.50–5.80 2.00–6.29 | 6.65 3.11–10.18 2.08–11.22 | 20% 13% 67% |
| Corners | 3.94 1.72–6.15 1.15–6.72 | 6.04 4.04–8.04 3.50–8.57 | 9.97 5.76–14.19 4.65–15.29 | 20% 69% |
| Possession % | 41.72 34.92–48.51 33.26–50.18 | 59.21 52.43–66.00 50.75–67.67 | — | 14% 84% |
| Passes | 351 283–418 265–436 | 488 422–555 404–572 | 839 705–973 670–1008 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.53 54.50–62.56 53.21–63.85 | 72.77 68.44–77.09 67.13–78.40 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 15.39 12.55–18.23 11.80–18.99 | 12.81 9.87–15.76 9.12–16.50 | 28.20 22.42–33.98 20.92–35.49 | 65% 28% |
| Offsides | 3.42 2.26–4.58 1.96–4.88 | 2.21 1.12–3.30 0.83–3.59 | 5.63 3.38–7.89 2.79–8.47 | 62% 15% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.59 1.54–3.64 1.28–3.91 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 4.49 2.31–6.67 1.75–7.22 | 53% 19% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 14% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.90 2.46–5.33 2.07–5.72 | 2.44 0.88–3.99 0.46–4.42 | 6.33 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+