Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.702.73safe0.06–2.000.84–2.550.91–4.55safer0.00–2.250.62–2.780.43–5.03
Shots on target
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.654.538.19safe1.79–5.522.79–6.284.58–11.79safer1.30–6.012.33–6.743.63–12.75
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8913.4624.35safe6.97–14.829.89–17.0216.86–31.83safer5.87–15.918.94–17.9814.81–33.89
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction6.968.8115.77safe4.02–9.906.13–11.5010.15–21.40safer3.19–10.735.40–12.238.58–22.96
Blocked shots
25%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.934.247.17safe1.05–4.812.59–5.903.64–10.71safer0.50–5.362.10–6.392.60–11.74
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.484.959.43safe2.27–6.702.95–6.955.22–13.65safer1.70–7.272.42–7.484.11–14.75
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.2155.22safe38.42–52.0048.43–62.00safer36.75–53.6746.76–63.67
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction372453824safe305–439386–519691–958safer287–457369–537655–994
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction61.7570.97safe57.72–65.7766.64–75.29safer56.42–67.0765.34–76.60
Fouls
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1312.5228.65safe13.29–18.969.58–15.4722.87–34.43safer12.53–19.728.83–16.2221.36–35.94
Offsides
56%
19%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.531.694.22safe1.37–3.690.60–2.781.97–6.48safer1.07–4.000.31–3.071.38–7.07
Yellow cards
50%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.723.99safe1.22–3.320.59–2.851.81–6.17safer0.95–3.590.30–3.141.26–6.73
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.515.53safe1.59–4.460.95–4.072.54–8.52safer1.20–4.850.53–4.491.73–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.70 0.84–2.55 0.62–2.78 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 23% 24% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.65 1.79–5.52 1.30–6.01 | 4.53 2.79–6.28 2.33–6.74 | 8.19 4.58–11.79 3.63–12.75 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Total shots | 10.89 6.97–14.82 5.87–15.91 | 13.46 9.89–17.02 8.94–17.98 | 24.35 16.86–31.83 14.81–33.89 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 6.96 4.02–9.90 3.19–10.73 | 8.81 6.13–11.50 5.40–12.23 | 15.77 10.15–21.40 8.58–22.96 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 1.05–4.81 0.50–5.36 | 4.24 2.59–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 7.17 3.64–10.71 2.60–11.74 | 25% 14% 62% |
| Corners | 4.48 2.27–6.70 1.70–7.27 | 4.95 2.95–6.95 2.42–7.48 | 9.43 5.22–13.65 4.11–14.75 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 45.21 38.42–52.00 36.75–53.67 | 55.22 48.43–62.00 46.76–63.67 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 372 305–439 287–457 | 453 386–519 369–537 | 824 691–958 655–994 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.75 57.72–65.77 56.42–67.07 | 70.97 66.64–75.29 65.34–76.60 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 16.13 13.29–18.96 12.53–19.72 | 12.52 9.58–15.47 8.83–16.22 | 28.65 22.87–34.43 21.36–35.94 | 72% 22% |
| Offsides | 2.53 1.37–3.69 1.07–4.00 | 1.69 0.60–2.78 0.31–3.07 | 4.22 1.97–6.48 1.38–7.07 | 56% 19% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 1.22–3.32 0.95–3.59 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.26–6.73 | 50% 20% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 2.51 0.95–4.07 0.53–4.49 | 5.53 2.54–8.52 1.73–9.34 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+