Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.952.95safe0.03–1.971.09–2.801.12–4.77safer0.00–2.220.86–3.030.64–5.25
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.705.449.14safe1.84–5.563.70–7.185.53–12.74safer1.35–6.053.23–7.654.58–13.70
Total shots
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0615.6326.69safe7.14–14.9912.06–19.1919.20–34.17safer6.05–16.0811.10–20.1517.15–36.22
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5710.1216.69safe3.63–9.517.44–12.8011.06–22.31safer2.80–10.346.70–13.549.50–23.88
Blocked shots
18%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction2.714.687.39safe0.83–4.593.03–6.333.85–10.92safer0.28–5.132.53–6.832.82–11.96
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.376.0110.37safe2.15–6.584.01–8.016.16–14.59safer1.58–7.163.47–8.545.05–15.69
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.6760.56safe32.88–46.4653.78–67.35safer31.21–48.1352.11–69.02
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction340510849safe272–407443–576716–983safer254–425426–594680–1019
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction64.4078.25safe60.37–68.4373.93–82.58safer59.08–69.7372.62–83.89
Fouls
75%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6212.5529.18safe13.79–19.469.61–15.5023.40–34.96safer13.03–20.228.86–16.2521.89–36.46
Offsides
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.923.65safe0.58–2.900.82–3.011.40–5.91safer0.27–3.200.53–3.300.81–6.49
Yellow cards
51%
19%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.571.994.56safe1.52–3.620.86–3.122.38–6.74safer1.25–3.880.57–3.411.83–7.30
Red cards
15%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.090.27safe0.02–0.340.00–0.280.00–0.62safer0.00–0.490.00–0.410.00–0.90
GK saves
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.726.47safe2.31–5.181.17–4.283.48–9.46safer1.92–5.570.74–4.712.67–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.95 1.09–2.80 0.86–3.03 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.70 1.84–5.56 1.35–6.05 | 5.44 3.70–7.18 3.23–7.65 | 9.14 5.53–12.74 4.58–13.70 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.06 7.14–14.99 6.05–16.08 | 15.63 12.06–19.19 11.10–20.15 | 26.69 19.20–34.17 17.15–36.22 | 16% 78% |
| Shots in box | 6.57 3.63–9.51 2.80–10.34 | 10.12 7.44–12.80 6.70–13.54 | 16.69 11.06–22.31 9.50–23.88 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 2.71 0.83–4.59 0.28–5.13 | 4.68 3.03–6.33 2.53–6.83 | 7.39 3.85–10.92 2.82–11.96 | 18% 71% |
| Corners | 4.37 2.15–6.58 1.58–7.16 | 6.01 4.01–8.01 3.47–8.54 | 10.37 6.16–14.59 5.05–15.69 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 39.67 32.88–46.46 31.21–48.13 | 60.56 53.78–67.35 52.11–69.02 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 340 272–407 254–425 | 510 443–576 426–594 | 849 716–983 680–1019 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.40 60.37–68.43 59.08–69.73 | 78.25 73.93–82.58 72.62–83.89 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 16.62 13.79–19.46 13.03–20.22 | 12.55 9.61–15.50 8.86–16.25 | 29.18 23.40–34.96 21.89–36.46 | 75% 20% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.27–3.20 | 1.92 0.82–3.01 0.53–3.30 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.49 | 36% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.57 1.52–3.62 1.25–3.88 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.56 2.38–6.74 1.83–7.30 | 51% 19% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 15% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.75 2.31–5.18 1.92–5.57 | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | 6.47 3.48–9.46 2.67–10.27 | 58% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+