Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.082.95safe0.90–2.840.23–1.941.13–4.78safer0.65–3.090.00–2.170.65–5.26
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.159.23safe3.22–6.952.40–5.895.63–12.84safer2.73–7.441.94–6.354.67–13.79
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9511.9724.93safe9.03–16.888.41–15.5417.44–32.42safer7.94–17.977.45–16.5015.39–34.47
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.717.4517.15safe6.76–12.654.77–10.1311.53–22.78safer5.93–13.484.03–10.879.96–24.34
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.196.57safe1.50–5.271.53–4.843.04–10.11safer0.96–5.811.04–5.332.00–11.14
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.319.29safe2.77–7.202.31–6.315.08–13.50safer2.20–7.771.77–6.843.97–14.61
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.7146.61safe46.92–60.5039.83–53.40safer45.25–62.1738.15–55.07
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction481392873safe414–548325–458739–1007safer396–567308–476704–1042
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction72.3971.74safe68.36–76.4267.42–76.07safer67.07–77.7166.11–77.38
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4214.2927.71safe10.58–16.2611.35–17.2321.93–33.49safer9.82–17.0110.60–17.9820.42–35.00
Offsides
66%
15%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.462.005.47safe2.30–4.620.91–3.103.21–7.72safer2.00–4.920.62–3.382.62–8.31
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.554.63safe1.03–3.131.42–3.682.45–6.80safer0.76–3.391.13–3.971.89–7.36
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.106.18safe1.64–4.511.54–4.663.18–9.17safer1.25–4.901.12–5.082.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.90–2.84 0.65–3.09 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.95 1.13–4.78 0.65–5.26 | 56% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.22–6.95 2.73–7.44 | 4.15 2.40–5.89 1.94–6.35 | 9.23 5.63–12.84 4.67–13.79 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 12.95 9.03–16.88 7.94–17.97 | 11.97 8.41–15.54 7.45–16.50 | 24.93 17.44–32.42 15.39–34.47 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 9.71 6.76–12.65 5.93–13.48 | 7.45 4.77–10.13 4.03–10.87 | 17.15 11.53–22.78 9.96–24.34 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.50–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 3.19 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 6.57 3.04–10.11 2.00–11.14 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.77 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.77–6.84 | 9.29 5.08–13.50 3.97–14.61 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 53.71 46.92–60.50 45.25–62.17 | 46.61 39.83–53.40 38.15–55.07 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 396–567 | 392 325–458 308–476 | 873 739–1007 704–1042 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.39 68.36–76.42 67.07–77.71 | 71.74 67.42–76.07 66.11–77.38 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 13.42 10.58–16.26 9.82–17.01 | 14.29 11.35–17.23 10.60–17.98 | 27.71 21.93–33.49 20.42–35.00 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 3.46 2.30–4.62 2.00–4.92 | 2.00 0.91–3.10 0.62–3.38 | 5.47 3.21–7.72 2.62–8.31 | 66% 15% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.55 1.42–3.68 1.13–3.97 | 4.63 2.45–6.80 1.89–7.36 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 3.10 1.54–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 6.18 3.18–9.17 2.37–9.98 | 41% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.