Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.412.60safe0.22–2.160.56–2.260.78–4.43safer0.00–2.410.33–2.490.30–4.91
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.384.498.87safe2.52–6.252.74–6.235.26–12.47safer2.03–6.742.28–6.694.31–13.43
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9112.3625.27safe8.98–16.838.79–15.9217.78–32.75safer7.89–17.927.84–16.8815.73–34.80
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.708.1215.82safe4.76–10.655.44–10.8010.20–21.45safer3.93–11.484.70–11.548.63–23.01
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.186.49safe1.42–5.191.53–4.842.95–10.02safer0.88–5.731.04–5.331.92–11.06
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.755.039.78safe2.53–6.963.03–7.035.56–13.99safer1.96–7.532.50–7.564.46–15.10
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction47.6251.37safe40.83–54.4144.59–58.16safer39.16–56.0842.92–59.83
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction406414820safe339–473348–481686–954safer320–491330–498651–989
Pass accuracy %
26%
69%
homeawayprediction66.6071.02safe62.57–70.6366.70–75.35safer61.28–71.9265.39–76.66
Fouls
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9013.9730.87safe14.06–19.7411.03–16.9225.09–36.65safer13.30–20.4910.28–17.6723.59–38.16
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.923.58safe0.50–2.820.83–3.011.33–5.83safer0.20–3.120.54–3.300.74–6.42
Yellow cards
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.645.04safe1.35–3.441.51–3.772.86–7.21safer1.08–3.711.22–4.062.30–7.77
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.130.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.450.00–0.91
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.976.17safe1.77–4.641.41–4.523.18–9.17safer1.38–5.030.99–4.952.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.41 0.56–2.26 0.33–2.49 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.25 2.03–6.74 | 4.49 2.74–6.23 2.28–6.69 | 8.87 5.26–12.47 4.31–13.43 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.91 8.98–16.83 7.89–17.92 | 12.36 8.79–15.92 7.84–16.88 | 25.27 17.78–32.75 15.73–34.80 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.70 4.76–10.65 3.93–11.48 | 8.12 5.44–10.80 4.70–11.54 | 15.82 10.20–21.45 8.63–23.01 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 3.18 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 6.49 2.95–10.02 1.92–11.06 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.53–6.96 1.96–7.53 | 5.03 3.03–7.03 2.50–7.56 | 9.78 5.56–13.99 4.46–15.10 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.62 40.83–54.41 39.16–56.08 | 51.37 44.59–58.16 42.92–59.83 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 406 339–473 320–491 | 414 348–481 330–498 | 820 686–954 651–989 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.60 62.57–70.63 61.28–71.92 | 71.02 66.70–75.35 65.39–76.66 | — | 26% 69% |
| Fouls | 16.90 14.06–19.74 13.30–20.49 | 13.97 11.03–16.92 10.28–17.67 | 30.87 25.09–36.65 23.59–38.16 | 67% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.92 0.83–3.01 0.54–3.30 | 3.58 1.33–5.83 0.74–6.42 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.35–3.44 1.08–3.71 | 2.64 1.51–3.77 1.22–4.06 | 5.04 2.86–7.21 2.30–7.77 | 37% 18% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.77–4.64 1.38–5.03 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.99–4.95 | 6.17 3.18–9.17 2.37–9.98 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+