Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.092.42safe0.36–2.300.24–1.950.60–4.25safer0.11–2.550.01–2.180.12–4.73
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.448.37safe3.06–6.791.70–5.184.76–11.97safer2.57–7.281.23–5.653.80–12.93
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2510.3825.63safe11.33–19.186.82–13.9418.15–33.12safer10.24–20.275.86–14.9016.10–35.17
Shots in box
70%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.396.7316.12safe6.45–12.334.05–9.4110.49–21.74safer5.62–13.163.31–10.158.93–23.31
Blocked shots
59%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.832.756.58safe1.95–5.711.10–4.403.04–10.11safer1.40–6.250.61–4.902.01–11.15
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.389.64safe3.05–7.482.38–6.385.43–13.86safer2.48–8.051.84–6.914.32–14.96
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.8153.54safe40.02–53.6046.75–60.32safer38.35–55.2745.08–61.99
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction354394748safe287–421328–461615–882safer269–439310–478579–918
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction60.5367.19safe56.50–64.5662.87–71.51safer55.21–65.8561.56–72.82
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7114.8729.58safe11.87–17.5411.93–17.8223.80–35.36safer11.11–18.3011.18–18.5722.29–36.87
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.703.30safe0.45–2.770.61–2.791.05–5.56safer0.14–3.070.32–3.080.46–6.15
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.404.47safe1.03–3.131.27–3.532.30–6.65safer0.76–3.390.98–3.821.74–7.21
Red cards
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.160.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.340.00–0.60safer0.00–0.410.00–0.480.00–0.88
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.275.62safe0.91–3.781.72–4.832.63–8.61safer0.52–4.171.29–5.251.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.06–6.79 2.57–7.28 | 3.44 1.70–5.18 1.23–5.65 | 8.37 4.76–11.97 3.80–12.93 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.25 11.33–19.18 10.24–20.27 | 10.38 6.82–13.94 5.86–14.90 | 25.63 18.15–33.12 16.10–35.17 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.39 6.45–12.33 5.62–13.16 | 6.73 4.05–9.41 3.31–10.15 | 16.12 10.49–21.74 8.93–23.31 | 70% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 1.95–5.71 1.40–6.25 | 2.75 1.10–4.40 0.61–4.90 | 6.58 3.04–10.11 2.01–11.15 | 59% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.38 2.38–6.38 1.84–6.91 | 9.64 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.96 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 46.81 40.02–53.60 38.35–55.27 | 53.54 46.75–60.32 45.08–61.99 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 354 287–421 269–439 | 394 328–461 310–478 | 748 615–882 579–918 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.53 56.50–64.56 55.21–65.85 | 67.19 62.87–71.51 61.56–72.82 | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 14.71 11.87–17.54 11.11–18.30 | 14.87 11.93–17.82 11.18–18.57 | 29.58 23.80–35.36 22.29–36.87 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.14–3.07 | 1.70 0.61–2.79 0.32–3.08 | 3.30 1.05–5.56 0.46–6.15 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.47 2.30–6.65 1.74–7.21 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.91–3.78 0.52–4.17 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.82–9.43 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+