Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.162.49safe0.37–2.300.30–2.010.67–4.32safer0.12–2.550.08–2.240.19–4.80
Shots on target
57%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.508.00safe2.63–6.361.76–5.254.39–11.60safer2.14–6.851.29–5.713.44–12.56
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3310.1323.46safe9.40–17.256.57–13.7015.97–30.95safer8.31–18.345.61–14.6613.92–33.00
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction8.806.2915.08safe5.85–11.743.60–8.979.46–20.70safer5.02–12.572.87–9.707.89–22.27
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.766.15safe1.51–5.271.11–4.422.62–9.69safer0.96–5.810.62–4.911.58–10.72
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.879.64safe3.56–7.991.87–5.875.43–13.86safer2.99–8.561.34–6.404.32–14.96
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.2554.06safe39.46–53.0447.27–60.84safer37.79–54.7145.60–62.51
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction357440797safe289–424374–507663–931safer271–442356–524628–966
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction60.9668.91safe56.94–64.9964.59–73.24safer55.64–66.2963.28–74.54
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1513.0229.17safe13.31–18.9910.07–15.9623.38–34.95safer12.56–19.749.32–16.7121.88–36.45
Offsides
64%
17%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.721.484.20safe1.55–3.880.39–2.571.94–6.45safer1.25–4.180.10–2.861.35–7.04
Yellow cards
45%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.314.85safe1.49–3.591.18–3.432.67–7.03safer1.23–3.860.89–3.732.11–7.58
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
32%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.965.38safe0.98–3.851.40–4.512.38–8.37safer0.59–4.240.98–4.941.57–9.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.55 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.08–2.24 | 2.49 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.36 2.14–6.85 | 3.50 1.76–5.25 1.29–5.71 | 8.00 4.39–11.60 3.44–12.56 | 57% 14% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.40–17.25 8.31–18.34 | 10.13 6.57–13.70 5.61–14.66 | 23.46 15.97–30.95 13.92–33.00 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.80 5.85–11.74 5.02–12.57 | 6.29 3.60–8.97 2.87–9.70 | 15.08 9.46–20.70 7.89–22.27 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 2.76 1.11–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 6.15 2.62–9.69 1.58–10.72 | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.99 2.99–8.56 | 3.87 1.87–5.87 1.34–6.40 | 9.64 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.96 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 46.25 39.46–53.04 37.79–54.71 | 54.06 47.27–60.84 45.60–62.51 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 357 289–424 271–442 | 440 374–507 356–524 | 797 663–931 628–966 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.96 56.94–64.99 55.64–66.29 | 68.91 64.59–73.24 63.28–74.54 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 16.15 13.31–18.99 12.56–19.74 | 13.02 10.07–15.96 9.32–16.71 | 29.17 23.38–34.95 21.88–36.45 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.72 1.55–3.88 1.25–4.18 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 4.20 1.94–6.45 1.35–7.04 | 64% 17% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 2.54 1.49–3.59 1.23–3.86 | 2.31 1.18–3.43 0.89–3.73 | 4.85 2.67–7.03 2.11–7.58 | 45% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.98–3.85 0.59–4.24 | 2.96 1.40–4.51 0.98–4.94 | 5.38 2.38–8.37 1.57–9.18 | 32% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.