Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
28%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.032.33safe0.34–2.280.17–1.880.51–4.16safer0.09–2.530.00–2.110.03–4.64
Shots on target
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.463.007.46safe2.60–6.321.26–4.743.85–11.06safer2.11–6.810.79–5.212.90–12.02
Total shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction14.359.3623.72safe10.43–18.285.80–12.9216.23–31.20safer9.34–19.374.84–13.8814.18–33.25
Shots in box
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.185.9015.07safe6.23–12.123.21–8.589.45–20.70safer5.41–12.952.48–9.317.88–22.26
Blocked shots
62%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.762.486.25safe1.88–5.650.83–4.142.71–9.78safer1.34–6.190.34–4.631.68–10.82
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.063.679.73safe3.85–8.281.67–5.675.52–13.94safer3.28–8.851.13–6.204.41–15.05
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.7250.33safe42.93–56.5143.54–57.11safer41.26–58.1841.87–58.78
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction401389789safe333–468322–455656–923safer315–486305–473620–959
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction62.9265.51safe58.89–66.9461.19–69.83safer57.59–68.2459.88–71.14
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0014.8728.87safe11.17–16.8411.93–17.8123.09–34.66safer10.41–17.6011.18–18.5621.59–36.16
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.723.38safe0.50–2.820.63–2.811.13–5.63safer0.20–3.120.34–3.100.54–6.22
Yellow cards
32%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.564.61safe1.00–3.101.43–3.692.43–6.79safer0.74–3.371.14–3.981.88–7.35
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.150.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.470.00–0.88
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.033.135.17safe0.60–3.471.58–4.692.18–8.16safer0.21–3.861.15–5.111.36–8.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.33 0.51–4.16 0.03–4.64 | 43% 28% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.32 2.11–6.81 | 3.00 1.26–4.74 0.79–5.21 | 7.46 3.85–11.06 2.90–12.02 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.43–18.28 9.34–19.37 | 9.36 5.80–12.92 4.84–13.88 | 23.72 16.23–31.20 14.18–33.25 | 82% |
| Shots in box | 9.18 6.23–12.12 5.41–12.95 | 5.90 3.21–8.58 2.48–9.31 | 15.07 9.45–20.70 7.88–22.26 | 76% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 1.88–5.65 1.34–6.19 | 2.48 0.83–4.14 0.34–4.63 | 6.25 2.71–9.78 1.68–10.82 | 62% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.85 | 3.67 1.67–5.67 1.13–6.20 | 9.73 5.52–13.94 4.41–15.05 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 49.72 42.93–56.51 41.26–58.18 | 50.33 43.54–57.11 41.87–58.78 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 401 333–468 315–486 | 389 322–455 305–473 | 789 656–923 620–959 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.92 58.89–66.94 57.59–68.24 | 65.51 61.19–69.83 59.88–71.14 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 14.00 11.17–16.84 10.41–17.60 | 14.87 11.93–17.81 11.18–18.56 | 28.87 23.09–34.66 21.59–36.16 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.38 1.13–5.63 0.54–6.22 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.88–7.35 | 32% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.03 0.60–3.47 0.21–3.86 | 3.13 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 5.17 2.18–8.16 1.36–8.97 | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.