Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.042.31safe0.30–2.240.19–1.890.49–4.13safer0.05–2.490.00–2.120.01–4.61
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.878.27safe2.54–6.272.13–5.614.67–11.88safer2.05–6.761.66–6.083.71–12.83
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3912.1025.49safe9.46–17.318.54–15.6718.00–32.98safer8.37–18.407.58–16.6215.95–35.03
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.007.1715.18safe5.06–10.944.49–9.859.55–20.80safer4.23–11.773.76–10.597.99–22.37
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.646.21safe1.69–5.460.98–4.292.68–9.75safer1.15–6.000.49–4.781.64–10.78
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.529.55safe2.81–7.242.52–6.525.34–13.76safer2.24–7.811.99–7.064.23–14.87
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.2644.02safe48.47–62.0537.24–50.81safer46.80–63.7235.57–52.48
Passes
83%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction466349816safe399–534283–416682–949safer381–552265–433646–985
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction65.7965.67safe61.76–69.8261.35–70.00safer60.47–71.1160.04–71.31
Fouls
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2317.7131.93safe11.39–17.0614.76–20.6526.15–37.71safer10.63–17.8214.01–21.4024.64–39.22
Offsides
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.233.65safe0.26–2.581.14–3.321.40–5.91safer0.00–2.880.85–3.610.81–6.49
Yellow cards
29%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.965.21safe1.20–3.291.83–4.093.03–7.39safer0.93–3.561.54–4.382.47–7.94
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.822.865.68safe1.38–4.261.30–4.412.68–8.67safer1.00–4.640.88–4.841.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.04 0.19–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.31 0.49–4.13 0.01–4.61 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.54–6.27 2.05–6.76 | 3.87 2.13–5.61 1.66–6.08 | 8.27 4.67–11.88 3.71–12.83 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.39 9.46–17.31 8.37–18.40 | 12.10 8.54–15.67 7.58–16.62 | 25.49 18.00–32.98 15.95–35.03 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 7.17 4.49–9.85 3.76–10.59 | 15.18 9.55–20.80 7.99–22.37 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.69–5.46 1.15–6.00 | 2.64 0.98–4.29 0.49–4.78 | 6.21 2.68–9.75 1.64–10.78 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.81–7.24 2.24–7.81 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.06 | 9.55 5.34–13.76 4.23–14.87 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 55.26 48.47–62.05 46.80–63.72 | 44.02 37.24–50.81 35.57–52.48 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 466 399–534 381–552 | 349 283–416 265–433 | 816 682–949 646–985 | 83% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.79 61.76–69.82 60.47–71.11 | 65.67 61.35–70.00 60.04–71.31 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 14.23 11.39–17.06 10.63–17.82 | 17.71 14.76–20.65 14.01–21.40 | 31.93 26.15–37.71 24.64–39.22 | 24% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 2.23 1.14–3.32 0.85–3.61 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.49 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.25 1.20–3.29 0.93–3.56 | 2.96 1.83–4.09 1.54–4.38 | 5.21 3.03–7.39 2.47–7.94 | 29% 17% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.38–4.26 1.00–4.64 | 2.86 1.30–4.41 0.88–4.84 | 5.68 2.68–8.67 1.87–9.48 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.