Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
23%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction0.901.772.67safe0.00–1.870.91–2.620.85–4.49safer0.00–2.120.69–2.850.37–4.97
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.465.248.70safe1.60–5.323.50–6.985.09–12.30safer1.11–5.813.03–7.454.14–13.26
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8214.2425.05safe6.89–14.7410.68–17.8017.57–32.54safer5.80–15.839.72–18.7615.52–34.59
Shots in box
19%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.179.1215.29safe3.23–9.126.44–11.809.67–20.91safer2.40–9.955.70–12.548.10–22.48
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.676.73safe1.17–4.942.02–5.333.19–10.26safer0.63–5.481.53–5.822.16–11.30
Corners
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.875.479.35safe1.66–6.093.47–7.475.13–13.56safer1.09–6.662.94–8.014.03–14.67
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.2463.31safe30.45–44.0356.53–70.10safer28.78–45.7054.86–71.77
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction285489774safe217–352423–555640–907safer199–370405–573604–943
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction57.9375.76safe53.90–61.9671.44–80.08safer52.60–63.2570.13–81.39
Fouls
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction17.9313.7631.69safe15.09–20.7710.81–16.7025.91–37.47safer14.33–21.5210.07–17.4524.40–38.97
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.703.42safe0.55–2.880.61–2.801.17–5.67safer0.25–3.180.32–3.090.58–6.26
Yellow cards
45%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.395.03safe1.60–3.701.26–3.522.86–7.21safer1.33–3.960.97–3.812.30–7.77
Red cards
13%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.140.30safe0.00–0.320.00–0.320.00–0.65safer0.00–0.470.00–0.460.00–0.93
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.152.445.59safe1.71–4.590.88–3.992.59–8.58safer1.33–4.970.46–4.421.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.90 0.00–1.87 0.00–2.12 | 1.77 0.91–2.62 0.69–2.85 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 19% 23% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.46 1.60–5.32 1.11–5.81 | 5.24 3.50–6.98 3.03–7.45 | 8.70 5.09–12.30 4.14–13.26 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.82 6.89–14.74 5.80–15.83 | 14.24 10.68–17.80 9.72–18.76 | 25.05 17.57–32.54 15.52–34.59 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.17 3.23–9.12 2.40–9.95 | 9.12 6.44–11.80 5.70–12.54 | 15.29 9.67–20.91 8.10–22.48 | 19% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 3.06 1.17–4.94 0.63–5.48 | 3.67 2.02–5.33 1.53–5.82 | 6.73 3.19–10.26 2.16–11.30 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 3.87 1.66–6.09 1.09–6.66 | 5.47 3.47–7.47 2.94–8.01 | 9.35 5.13–13.56 4.03–14.67 | 24% 64% |
| Possession % | 37.24 30.45–44.03 28.78–45.70 | 63.31 56.53–70.10 54.86–71.77 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 285 217–352 199–370 | 489 423–555 405–573 | 774 640–907 604–943 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 57.93 53.90–61.96 52.60–63.25 | 75.76 71.44–80.08 70.13–81.39 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 17.93 15.09–20.77 14.33–21.52 | 13.76 10.81–16.70 10.07–17.45 | 31.69 25.91–37.47 24.40–38.97 | 74% 20% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.55–2.88 0.25–3.18 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.09 | 3.42 1.17–5.67 0.58–6.26 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.65 1.60–3.70 1.33–3.96 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 5.03 2.86–7.21 2.30–7.77 | 45% 18% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 13% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.15 1.71–4.59 1.33–4.97 | 2.44 0.88–3.99 0.46–4.42 | 5.59 2.59–8.58 1.78–9.39 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+