Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.262.59safe0.37–2.300.40–2.110.77–4.42safer0.12–2.550.18–2.340.29–4.90
Shots on target
43%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.414.468.87safe2.55–6.282.71–6.205.27–12.48safer2.06–6.772.25–6.664.31–13.43
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6312.8827.51safe10.71–18.569.31–16.4420.02–34.99safer9.62–19.658.35–17.4017.97–37.05
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.658.1416.79safe5.71–11.595.45–10.8211.16–22.41safer4.88–12.424.72–11.559.60–23.98
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.693.176.86safe1.81–5.571.52–4.833.33–10.40safer1.26–6.121.03–5.322.29–11.43
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.629.92safe3.09–7.512.62–6.625.71–14.14safer2.51–8.092.09–7.164.60–15.24
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.7142.54safe50.92–64.5035.76–49.33safer49.25–66.1734.08–51.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction471313784safe404–539247–379651–918safer386–557229–397615–954
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction67.2165.37safe63.19–71.2461.04–69.69safer61.89–72.5459.73–71.00
Fouls
30%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6017.0931.69safe11.77–17.4414.14–20.0325.91–37.47safer11.01–18.2013.40–20.7824.41–38.98
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.893.72safe0.67–2.990.79–2.981.46–5.97safer0.37–3.290.50–3.270.87–6.56
Yellow cards
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.005.69safe1.64–3.741.87–4.133.51–7.87safer1.38–4.011.58–4.422.95–8.43
Red cards
13%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.160.32safe0.01–0.330.00–0.340.00–0.67safer0.00–0.480.00–0.480.00–0.95
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.013.366.37safe1.58–4.451.80–4.923.38–9.36safer1.19–4.841.38–5.342.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.55 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.18–2.34 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.55–6.28 2.06–6.77 | 4.46 2.71–6.20 2.25–6.66 | 8.87 5.27–12.48 4.31–13.43 | 43% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 14.63 10.71–18.56 9.62–19.65 | 12.88 9.31–16.44 8.35–17.40 | 27.51 20.02–34.99 17.97–37.05 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.65 5.71–11.59 4.88–12.42 | 8.14 5.45–10.82 4.72–11.55 | 16.79 11.16–22.41 9.60–23.98 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.57 1.26–6.12 | 3.17 1.52–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.43 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.51 2.51–8.09 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.16 | 9.92 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.24 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 57.71 50.92–64.50 49.25–66.17 | 42.54 35.76–49.33 34.08–51.00 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 471 404–539 386–557 | 313 247–379 229–397 | 784 651–918 615–954 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.21 63.19–71.24 61.89–72.54 | 65.37 61.04–69.69 59.73–71.00 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 14.60 11.77–17.44 11.01–18.20 | 17.09 14.14–20.03 13.40–20.78 | 31.69 25.91–37.47 24.41–38.98 | 30% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.50–3.27 | 3.72 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.69 1.64–3.74 1.38–4.01 | 3.00 1.87–4.13 1.58–4.42 | 5.69 3.51–7.87 2.95–8.43 | 37% 17% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 13% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 3.36 1.80–4.92 1.38–5.34 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.57–10.18 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.