Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.292.41safe0.15–2.090.44–2.150.59–4.23safer0.00–2.340.21–2.370.11–4.71
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.118.14safe2.16–5.892.37–5.864.53–11.74safer1.67–6.371.91–6.323.58–12.70
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2912.5624.84safe8.36–16.218.99–16.1217.36–32.33safer7.27–17.308.03–17.0815.31–34.38
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.278.3315.60safe4.33–10.215.65–11.019.98–21.22safer3.50–11.044.91–11.758.41–22.79
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.995.99safe1.12–4.881.33–4.642.45–9.52safer0.57–5.430.84–5.131.42–10.56
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.819.58safe2.56–6.982.81–6.815.37–13.80safer1.98–7.562.28–7.354.26–14.90
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.9148.25safe45.12–58.7041.47–55.04safer43.45–60.3739.80–56.71
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction405358763safe338–473291–424630–897safer320–491274–442594–933
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction63.3265.77safe59.29–67.3561.44–70.09safer58.00–68.6460.13–71.40
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8315.0229.85safe11.99–17.6712.07–17.9624.06–35.63safer11.24–18.4211.32–18.7122.56–37.13
Offsides
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.184.18safe0.84–3.161.09–3.281.93–6.44safer0.54–3.460.80–3.571.34–7.03
Yellow cards
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.635.16safe1.47–3.571.50–3.762.98–7.33safer1.21–3.841.21–4.052.42–7.89
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.120.28safe0.00–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.62safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.91
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.822.785.60safe1.38–4.251.22–4.332.60–8.59safer0.99–4.640.80–4.761.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.29 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.37 | 2.41 0.59–4.23 0.11–4.71 | 32% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.16–5.89 1.67–6.37 | 4.11 2.37–5.86 1.91–6.32 | 8.14 4.53–11.74 3.58–12.70 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.29 8.36–16.21 7.27–17.30 | 12.56 8.99–16.12 8.03–17.08 | 24.84 17.36–32.33 15.31–34.38 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.27 4.33–10.21 3.50–11.04 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 15.60 9.98–21.22 8.41–22.79 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.12–4.88 0.57–5.43 | 2.99 1.33–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 5.99 2.45–9.52 1.42–10.56 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.56–6.98 1.98–7.56 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.28–7.35 | 9.58 5.37–13.80 4.26–14.90 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 51.91 45.12–58.70 43.45–60.37 | 48.25 41.47–55.04 39.80–56.71 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 405 338–473 320–491 | 358 291–424 274–442 | 763 630–897 594–933 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.32 59.29–67.35 58.00–68.64 | 65.77 61.44–70.09 60.13–71.40 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 14.83 11.99–17.67 11.24–18.42 | 15.02 12.07–17.96 11.32–18.71 | 29.85 24.06–35.63 22.56–37.13 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.46 | 2.18 1.09–3.28 0.80–3.57 | 4.18 1.93–6.44 1.34–7.03 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.52 1.47–3.57 1.21–3.84 | 2.63 1.50–3.76 1.21–4.05 | 5.16 2.98–7.33 2.42–7.89 | 39% 18% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 2.78 1.22–4.33 0.80–4.76 | 5.60 2.60–8.59 1.79–9.40 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.