Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.502.49safe0.03–1.960.64–2.350.67–4.31safer0.00–2.210.41–2.580.19–4.79
Shots on target
23%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.597.68safe1.22–4.952.85–6.344.07–11.28safer0.73–5.442.38–6.803.12–12.24
Total shots
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9513.2323.18safe6.02–13.879.67–16.8015.69–30.67safer4.93–14.968.71–17.7613.64–32.72
Shots in box
23%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction6.338.6615.00safe3.39–9.275.98–11.349.37–20.62safer2.56–10.105.25–12.087.81–22.19
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.643.906.53safe0.75–4.522.24–5.553.00–10.07safer0.21–5.061.75–6.041.96–11.10
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.505.199.70safe2.29–6.723.19–7.195.48–13.91safer1.72–7.292.66–7.734.38–15.02
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction52.1348.59safe45.34–58.9241.81–55.38safer43.67–60.5940.14–57.05
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction426364789safe358–493297–430656–923safer340–511280–448620–959
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction61.2865.61safe57.25–65.3161.29–69.94safer55.96–66.6059.98–71.24
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7114.5527.26safe9.87–15.5511.60–17.4921.48–33.04safer9.12–16.3110.85–18.2419.97–34.55
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.593.20safe0.45–2.770.50–2.680.94–5.45safer0.15–3.070.21–2.970.36–6.04
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.244.27safe0.98–3.081.12–3.372.09–6.45safer0.71–3.340.82–3.661.54–7.01
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.235.28safe1.61–4.480.68–3.792.29–8.27safer1.22–4.870.25–4.211.47–9.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.49 0.67–4.31 0.19–4.79 | 25% 26% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.08 1.22–4.95 0.73–5.44 | 4.59 2.85–6.34 2.38–6.80 | 7.68 4.07–11.28 3.12–12.24 | 23% 64% |
| Total shots | 9.95 6.02–13.87 4.93–14.96 | 13.23 9.67–16.80 8.71–17.76 | 23.18 15.69–30.67 13.64–32.72 | 21% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.33 3.39–9.27 2.56–10.10 | 8.66 5.98–11.34 5.25–12.08 | 15.00 9.37–20.62 7.81–22.19 | 23% 68% |
| Blocked shots | 2.64 0.75–4.52 0.21–5.06 | 3.90 2.24–5.55 1.75–6.04 | 6.53 3.00–10.07 1.96–11.10 | 24% 14% 62% |
| Corners | 4.50 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 5.19 3.19–7.19 2.66–7.73 | 9.70 5.48–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 52.13 45.34–58.92 43.67–60.59 | 48.59 41.81–55.38 40.14–57.05 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 426 358–493 340–511 | 364 297–430 280–448 | 789 656–923 620–959 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.28 57.25–65.31 55.96–66.60 | 65.61 61.29–69.94 59.98–71.24 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 12.71 9.87–15.55 9.12–16.31 | 14.55 11.60–17.49 10.85–18.24 | 27.26 21.48–33.04 19.97–34.55 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 3.20 0.94–5.45 0.36–6.04 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 2.24 1.12–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.27 2.09–6.45 1.54–7.01 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.23 0.68–3.79 0.25–4.21 | 5.28 2.29–8.27 1.47–9.08 | 55% 17% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.