Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
25%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.640.942.58safe0.67–2.610.09–1.800.76–4.40safer0.42–2.860.00–2.020.28–4.88
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.378.36safe3.12–6.851.63–5.124.75–11.96safer2.63–7.341.16–5.583.80–12.92
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction14.789.6424.42safe10.85–18.706.08–13.2016.93–31.90safer9.76–19.795.12–14.1614.88–33.95
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.605.4415.04safe6.66–12.542.76–8.129.42–20.67safer5.83–13.372.02–8.867.85–22.23
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.596.22safe1.75–5.510.94–4.252.69–9.76safer1.20–6.050.45–4.741.65–10.79
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.539.07safe3.32–7.751.53–5.534.85–13.28safer2.75–8.321.00–6.073.75–14.39
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.5650.50safe42.77–56.3543.71–57.28safer41.10–58.0242.04–58.95
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction387414801safe320–454348–480667–935safer302–472330–498632–970
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction63.5967.43safe59.56–67.6263.11–71.76safer58.27–68.9161.80–73.07
Fouls
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4914.5730.06safe12.66–18.3311.62–17.5124.28–35.84safer11.90–19.0910.87–18.2622.77–37.35
Offsides
48%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.453.35safe0.75–3.070.35–2.541.10–5.61safer0.45–3.370.07–2.830.51–6.20
Yellow cards
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.562.765.32safe1.51–3.611.63–3.893.14–7.50safer1.25–3.881.34–4.182.58–8.06
Red cards
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.28safe0.00–0.280.00–0.350.00–0.63safer0.00–0.430.00–0.480.00–0.91
GK saves
26%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.403.445.84safe0.96–3.831.88–4.992.84–8.83safer0.57–4.221.46–5.422.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.67–2.61 0.42–2.86 | 0.94 0.09–1.80 0.00–2.02 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 54% 25% 22% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.12–6.85 2.63–7.34 | 3.37 1.63–5.12 1.16–5.58 | 8.36 4.75–11.96 3.80–12.92 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.78 10.85–18.70 9.76–19.79 | 9.64 6.08–13.20 5.12–14.16 | 24.42 16.93–31.90 14.88–33.95 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 9.60 6.66–12.54 5.83–13.37 | 5.44 2.76–8.12 2.02–8.86 | 15.04 9.42–20.67 7.85–22.23 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.05 | 2.59 0.94–4.25 0.45–4.74 | 6.22 2.69–9.76 1.65–10.79 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.32–7.75 2.75–8.32 | 3.53 1.53–5.53 1.00–6.07 | 9.07 4.85–13.28 3.75–14.39 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 49.56 42.77–56.35 41.10–58.02 | 50.50 43.71–57.28 42.04–58.95 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 387 320–454 302–472 | 414 348–480 330–498 | 801 667–935 632–970 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.59 59.56–67.62 58.27–68.91 | 67.43 63.11–71.76 61.80–73.07 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 15.49 12.66–18.33 11.90–19.09 | 14.57 11.62–17.51 10.87–18.26 | 30.06 24.28–35.84 22.77–37.35 | 53% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.37 | 1.45 0.35–2.54 0.07–2.83 | 3.35 1.10–5.61 0.51–6.20 | 48% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.56 1.51–3.61 1.25–3.88 | 2.76 1.63–3.89 1.34–4.18 | 5.32 3.14–7.50 2.58–8.06 | 38% 18% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.96–3.83 0.57–4.22 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.46–5.42 | 5.84 2.84–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 26% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+