Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
27%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.410.912.32safe0.44–2.380.05–1.760.49–4.14safer0.19–2.630.00–1.990.02–4.62
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.663.267.92safe2.80–6.531.51–5.004.31–11.53safer2.31–7.021.05–5.463.36–12.48
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6910.3426.03safe11.76–19.616.77–13.9018.54–33.51safer10.67–20.715.81–14.8616.49–35.56
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.846.8716.71safe6.90–12.784.19–9.5511.09–22.33safer6.07–13.613.45–10.299.52–23.90
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.972.676.64safe2.09–5.851.02–4.333.11–10.18safer1.55–6.400.53–4.822.07–11.22
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.734.6010.34safe3.52–7.952.60–6.606.12–14.55safer2.95–8.522.07–7.145.02–15.66
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.1850.52safe42.39–55.9743.73–57.30safer40.72–57.6442.06–58.97
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction357375732safe290–424309–442598–866safer271–442291–459563–901
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction60.4765.98safe56.44–64.5061.65–70.30safer55.14–65.7960.35–71.61
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3314.6628.99safe11.49–17.1711.71–17.6023.20–34.77safer10.73–17.9210.97–18.3521.70–36.27
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.613.65safe0.88–3.200.52–2.711.40–5.91safer0.58–3.500.23–3.000.81–6.50
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.524.58safe1.01–3.111.39–3.642.40–6.76safer0.75–3.381.10–3.941.84–7.31
Red cards
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.160.25safe0.00–0.250.00–0.340.00–0.60safer0.00–0.400.00–0.480.00–0.88
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.165.55safe0.95–3.831.60–4.712.55–8.54safer0.57–4.211.18–5.141.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 0.91 0.05–1.76 0.00–1.99 | 2.32 0.49–4.14 0.02–4.62 | 49% 27% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.53 2.31–7.02 | 3.26 1.51–5.00 1.05–5.46 | 7.92 4.31–11.53 3.36–12.48 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.69 11.76–19.61 10.67–20.71 | 10.34 6.77–13.90 5.81–14.86 | 26.03 18.54–33.51 16.49–35.56 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 9.84 6.90–12.78 6.07–13.61 | 6.87 4.19–9.55 3.45–10.29 | 16.71 11.09–22.33 9.52–23.90 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.85 1.55–6.40 | 2.67 1.02–4.33 0.53–4.82 | 6.64 3.11–10.18 2.07–11.22 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.73 3.52–7.95 2.95–8.52 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.14 | 10.34 6.12–14.55 5.02–15.66 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 49.18 42.39–55.97 40.72–57.64 | 50.52 43.73–57.30 42.06–58.97 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 357 290–424 271–442 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 732 598–866 563–901 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.47 56.44–64.50 55.14–65.79 | 65.98 61.65–70.30 60.35–71.61 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 14.33 11.49–17.17 10.73–17.92 | 14.66 11.71–17.60 10.97–18.35 | 28.99 23.20–34.77 21.70–36.27 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.61 0.52–2.71 0.23–3.00 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.11 0.75–3.38 | 2.52 1.39–3.64 1.10–3.94 | 4.58 2.40–6.76 1.84–7.31 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.95–3.83 0.57–4.21 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.18–5.14 | 5.55 2.55–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.