Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.012.26safe0.28–2.210.16–1.870.43–4.08safer0.02–2.460.00–2.100.00–4.56
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.758.16safe2.55–6.272.01–5.494.56–11.77safer2.06–6.761.54–5.963.60–12.72
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1411.3424.48safe9.21–17.067.78–14.9016.99–31.97safer8.12–18.156.82–15.8614.94–34.02
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.867.0115.87safe5.92–11.804.33–9.6910.25–21.50safer5.09–12.633.59–10.438.68–23.06
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.462.956.41safe1.58–5.341.30–4.602.87–9.94safer1.03–5.880.80–5.101.84–10.98
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.179.58safe3.19–7.622.17–6.175.36–13.79safer2.62–8.191.64–6.704.26–14.90
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction52.3945.85safe45.60–59.1839.07–52.64safer43.93–60.8537.39–54.31
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction396329725safe329–463263–396591–859safer310–481245–413556–894
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction62.1162.08safe58.08–66.1457.75–66.40safer56.79–67.4456.45–67.71
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5715.8430.40safe11.73–17.4012.89–18.7824.62–36.19safer10.97–18.1612.14–19.5323.12–37.69
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.323.18safe0.70–3.020.23–2.420.93–5.43safer0.39–3.320.00–2.710.34–6.02
Yellow cards
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.905.12safe1.18–3.271.77–4.032.94–7.30safer0.91–3.541.48–4.322.38–7.86
Red cards
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.190.33safe0.00–0.300.00–0.370.00–0.68safer0.00–0.450.00–0.510.00–0.96
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.085.53safe1.02–3.891.52–4.632.54–8.52safer0.63–4.281.10–5.061.73–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.01 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.26 0.43–4.08 0.00–4.56 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.55–6.27 2.06–6.76 | 3.75 2.01–5.49 1.54–5.96 | 8.16 4.56–11.77 3.60–12.72 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.14 9.21–17.06 8.12–18.15 | 11.34 7.78–14.90 6.82–15.86 | 24.48 16.99–31.97 14.94–34.02 | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.86 5.92–11.80 5.09–12.63 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 15.87 10.25–21.50 8.68–23.06 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.58–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 2.95 1.30–4.60 0.80–5.10 | 6.41 2.87–9.94 1.84–10.98 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.19–7.62 2.62–8.19 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.70 | 9.58 5.36–13.79 4.26–14.90 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.39 45.60–59.18 43.93–60.85 | 45.85 39.07–52.64 37.39–54.31 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 396 329–463 310–481 | 329 263–396 245–413 | 725 591–859 556–894 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.11 58.08–66.14 56.79–67.44 | 62.08 57.75–66.40 56.45–67.71 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 14.57 11.73–17.40 10.97–18.16 | 15.84 12.89–18.78 12.14–19.53 | 30.40 24.62–36.19 23.12–37.69 | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.39–3.32 | 1.32 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.18 0.93–5.43 0.34–6.02 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.18–3.27 0.91–3.54 | 2.90 1.77–4.03 1.48–4.32 | 5.12 2.94–7.30 2.38–7.86 | 30% 17% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.19 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.51 | 0.33 0.00–0.68 0.00–0.96 | 74% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.08 1.52–4.63 1.10–5.06 | 5.53 2.54–8.52 1.73–9.34 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.