Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.342.56safe0.25–2.190.49–2.200.74–4.38safer0.00–2.440.26–2.420.26–4.86
Shots on target
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.719.14safe2.57–6.292.97–6.455.53–12.74safer2.08–6.782.50–6.924.58–13.70
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7512.9226.67safe9.83–17.689.36–16.4819.19–34.16safer8.74–18.778.40–17.4417.13–36.21
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.037.9015.94safe5.09–10.975.22–10.5910.31–21.56safer4.26–11.804.49–11.328.75–23.13
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.483.236.71safe1.60–5.361.58–4.883.17–10.24safer1.05–5.911.08–5.372.14–11.28
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.6910.01safe3.11–7.542.69–6.695.80–14.22safer2.54–8.112.15–7.224.69–15.33
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.4551.89safe40.66–54.2445.10–58.67safer38.99–55.9143.43–60.35
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction422447869safe355–490380–513735–1003safer337–508363–531700–1038
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction66.8272.35safe62.79–70.8568.02–76.67safer61.50–72.1566.72–77.98
Fouls
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4913.8129.30safe12.65–18.3310.87–16.7623.52–35.09safer11.90–19.0810.12–17.5122.02–36.59
Offsides
56%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.661.844.50safe1.50–3.820.75–2.932.25–6.76safer1.20–4.120.46–3.221.66–7.35
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.314.75safe1.38–3.481.18–3.442.57–6.92safer1.12–3.750.89–3.732.01–7.48
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.062.895.95safe1.62–4.491.33–4.442.95–8.94safer1.23–4.880.91–4.872.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.34 0.49–2.20 0.26–2.42 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.26–4.86 | 34% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.57–6.29 2.08–6.78 | 4.71 2.97–6.45 2.50–6.92 | 9.14 5.53–12.74 4.58–13.70 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.75 9.83–17.68 8.74–18.77 | 12.92 9.36–16.48 8.40–17.44 | 26.67 19.19–34.16 17.13–36.21 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.03 5.09–10.97 4.26–11.80 | 7.90 5.22–10.59 4.49–11.32 | 15.94 10.31–21.56 8.75–23.13 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.60–5.36 1.05–5.91 | 3.23 1.58–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 6.71 3.17–10.24 2.14–11.28 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.54 2.54–8.11 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 10.01 5.80–14.22 4.69–15.33 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 47.45 40.66–54.24 38.99–55.91 | 51.89 45.10–58.67 43.43–60.35 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 422 355–490 337–508 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 869 735–1003 700–1038 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.82 62.79–70.85 61.50–72.15 | 72.35 68.02–76.67 66.72–77.98 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 15.49 12.65–18.33 11.90–19.08 | 13.81 10.87–16.76 10.12–17.51 | 29.30 23.52–35.09 22.02–36.59 | 59% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.12 | 1.84 0.75–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 4.50 2.25–6.76 1.66–7.35 | 56% 18% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.48 1.12–3.75 | 2.31 1.18–3.44 0.89–3.73 | 4.75 2.57–6.92 2.01–7.48 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 2.89 1.33–4.44 0.91–4.87 | 5.95 2.95–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+