Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.222.69safe0.49–2.430.37–2.080.86–4.51safer0.24–2.680.14–2.310.38–4.99
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.449.28safe2.98–6.702.70–6.185.68–12.89safer2.49–7.192.23–6.654.72–13.84
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1413.4929.63safe12.22–20.079.93–17.0522.15–37.12safer11.13–21.168.97–18.0120.09–39.17
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.238.0917.32safe6.29–12.175.41–10.7711.70–22.94safer5.46–13.004.67–11.5110.13–24.51
Blocked shots
49%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.146.71safe1.69–5.451.49–4.803.18–10.25safer1.15–6.001.00–5.292.14–11.29
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.729.80safe2.86–7.292.72–6.725.59–14.01safer2.29–7.862.19–7.264.48–15.12
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.4946.50safe46.70–60.2839.72–53.29safer45.03–61.9538.05–54.96
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction447370817safe380–514303–436683–950safer361–532286–454647–986
Pass accuracy %
45%
49%
homeawayprediction66.8367.22safe62.80–70.8662.90–71.54safer61.51–72.1561.59–72.85
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2815.0630.34safe12.44–18.1212.12–18.0024.56–36.12safer11.69–18.8711.37–18.7523.05–37.63
Offsides
46%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.844.02safe1.02–3.340.74–2.931.77–6.27safer0.72–3.650.46–3.221.18–6.86
Yellow cards
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.725.39safe1.62–3.721.59–3.843.21–7.57safer1.36–3.991.30–4.142.65–8.13
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.29safe0.00–0.290.00–0.340.00–0.63safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.92
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.476.53safe1.63–4.501.91–5.033.54–9.52safer1.24–4.891.49–5.452.73–10.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.70 2.49–7.19 | 4.44 2.70–6.18 2.23–6.65 | 9.28 5.68–12.89 4.72–13.84 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 16.14 12.22–20.07 11.13–21.16 | 13.49 9.93–17.05 8.97–18.01 | 29.63 22.15–37.12 20.09–39.17 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.29–12.17 5.46–13.00 | 8.09 5.41–10.77 4.67–11.51 | 17.32 11.70–22.94 10.13–24.51 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.69–5.45 1.15–6.00 | 3.14 1.49–4.80 1.00–5.29 | 6.71 3.18–10.25 2.14–11.29 | 49% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.86–7.29 2.29–7.86 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.19–7.26 | 9.80 5.59–14.01 4.48–15.12 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 53.49 46.70–60.28 45.03–61.95 | 46.50 39.72–53.29 38.05–54.96 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 447 380–514 361–532 | 370 303–436 286–454 | 817 683–950 647–986 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.83 62.80–70.86 61.51–72.15 | 67.22 62.90–71.54 61.59–72.85 | — | 45% 49% |
| Fouls | 15.28 12.44–18.12 11.69–18.87 | 15.06 12.12–18.00 11.37–18.75 | 30.34 24.56–36.12 23.05–37.63 | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.65 | 1.84 0.74–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 4.02 1.77–6.27 1.18–6.86 | 46% 20% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.67 1.62–3.72 1.36–3.99 | 2.72 1.59–3.84 1.30–4.14 | 5.39 3.21–7.57 2.65–8.13 | 40% 18% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 77% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 3.47 1.91–5.03 1.49–5.45 | 6.53 3.54–9.52 2.73–10.34 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.