Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.022.85safe0.86–2.800.17–1.881.03–4.67safer0.61–3.050.00–2.110.55–5.15
Shots on target
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.068.14safe3.22–6.941.31–4.804.53–11.74safer2.73–7.430.85–5.263.57–12.70
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction15.289.0624.34safe11.36–19.215.50–12.6216.86–31.83safer10.27–20.304.54–13.5814.81–33.88
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.516.1315.64safe6.57–12.463.45–8.8110.02–21.27safer5.74–13.292.71–9.558.45–22.83
Blocked shots
60%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.832.696.52safe1.95–5.721.04–4.342.99–10.06safer1.41–6.260.54–4.831.95–11.09
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.063.599.66safe3.85–8.281.59–5.595.44–13.87safer3.28–8.851.06–6.134.34–14.98
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.6536.81safe56.86–70.4430.02–43.59safer55.19–72.1128.35–45.27
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction530279809safe463–597212–345675–943safer445–615195–363640–978
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction72.1863.34safe68.15–76.2159.01–67.66safer66.86–77.5157.70–68.97
Fouls
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2016.5928.79safe9.36–15.0313.65–19.5423.00–34.57safer8.60–15.7912.90–20.2821.50–36.07
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.523.28safe0.60–2.920.43–2.611.03–5.54safer0.30–3.220.14–2.900.44–6.13
Yellow cards
23%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.973.065.04safe0.92–3.021.94–4.192.86–7.22safer0.66–3.291.64–4.482.30–7.77
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.150.26safe0.00–0.270.00–0.340.00–0.61safer0.00–0.420.00–0.470.00–0.89
GK saves
21%
15%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.123.465.58safe0.68–3.561.90–5.022.59–8.57safer0.30–3.941.48–5.441.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.22–6.94 2.73–7.43 | 3.06 1.31–4.80 0.85–5.26 | 8.14 4.53–11.74 3.57–12.70 | 70% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.28 11.36–19.21 10.27–20.30 | 9.06 5.50–12.62 4.54–13.58 | 24.34 16.86–31.83 14.81–33.88 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.57–12.46 5.74–13.29 | 6.13 3.45–8.81 2.71–9.55 | 15.64 10.02–21.27 8.45–22.83 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 1.95–5.72 1.41–6.26 | 2.69 1.04–4.34 0.54–4.83 | 6.52 2.99–10.06 1.95–11.09 | 60% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.85 | 3.59 1.59–5.59 1.06–6.13 | 9.66 5.44–13.87 4.34–14.98 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 63.65 56.86–70.44 55.19–72.11 | 36.81 30.02–43.59 28.35–45.27 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 530 463–597 445–615 | 279 212–345 195–363 | 809 675–943 640–978 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.18 68.15–76.21 66.86–77.51 | 63.34 59.01–67.66 57.70–68.97 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.20 9.36–15.03 8.60–15.79 | 16.59 13.65–19.54 12.90–20.28 | 28.79 23.00–34.57 21.50–36.07 | 18% 77% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.28 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 3.06 1.94–4.19 1.64–4.48 | 5.04 2.86–7.22 2.30–7.77 | 23% 16% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.68–3.56 0.30–3.94 | 3.46 1.90–5.02 1.48–5.44 | 5.58 2.59–8.57 1.78–9.39 | 21% 15% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.