Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
59%
21%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.103.13safe1.07–3.000.24–1.951.31–4.95safer0.81–3.250.01–2.180.83–5.43
Shots on target
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.323.459.77safe4.46–8.181.71–5.196.16–13.37safer3.97–8.671.24–5.665.21–14.33
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9310.7827.71safe13.00–20.857.22–14.3420.22–35.20safer11.91–21.956.26–15.3018.17–37.25
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction10.616.5417.15safe7.67–13.563.86–9.2211.53–22.77safer6.84–14.393.12–9.959.96–24.34
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.362.717.07safe2.48–6.241.06–4.363.53–10.61safer1.94–6.790.56–4.852.50–11.64
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.424.1710.58safe4.20–8.632.17–6.176.37–14.80safer3.63–9.201.63–6.705.26–15.91
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.7745.10safe47.98–61.5638.32–51.89safer46.31–63.2336.65–53.56
Passes
77%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction468378846safe401–536311–444713–980safer383–554294–462677–1016
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.8869.37safe66.85–74.9165.04–73.69safer65.56–76.2063.73–75.00
Fouls
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2615.4727.73safe9.42–15.1012.53–18.4221.95–33.51safer8.67–15.8511.78–19.1720.45–35.02
Offsides
24%
17%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.814.62safe0.65–2.971.72–3.902.36–6.87safer0.35–3.271.43–4.191.77–7.46
Yellow cards
23%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.764.48safe0.68–2.771.63–3.892.31–6.66safer0.41–3.041.34–4.181.75–7.22
Red cards
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.170.26safe0.00–0.250.00–0.360.00–0.60safer0.00–0.400.00–0.490.00–0.89
GK saves
24%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.806.38safe1.14–4.012.24–5.363.39–9.37safer0.76–4.401.82–5.782.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.07–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 59% 21% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.32 4.46–8.18 3.97–8.67 | 3.45 1.71–5.19 1.24–5.66 | 9.77 6.16–13.37 5.21–14.33 | 78% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.93 13.00–20.85 11.91–21.95 | 10.78 7.22–14.34 6.26–15.30 | 27.71 20.22–35.20 18.17–37.25 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 10.61 7.67–13.56 6.84–14.39 | 6.54 3.86–9.22 3.12–9.95 | 17.15 11.53–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.24 1.94–6.79 | 2.71 1.06–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 7.07 3.53–10.61 2.50–11.64 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.42 4.20–8.63 3.63–9.20 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.63–6.70 | 10.58 6.37–14.80 5.26–15.91 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 54.77 47.98–61.56 46.31–63.23 | 45.10 38.32–51.89 36.65–53.56 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 468 401–536 383–554 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 846 713–980 677–1016 | 77% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.88 66.85–74.91 65.56–76.20 | 69.37 65.04–73.69 63.73–75.00 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 12.26 9.42–15.10 8.67–15.85 | 15.47 12.53–18.42 11.78–19.17 | 27.73 21.95–33.51 20.45–35.02 | 24% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 2.81 1.72–3.90 1.43–4.19 | 4.62 2.36–6.87 1.77–7.46 | 24% 17% 59% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.77 0.41–3.04 | 2.76 1.63–3.89 1.34–4.18 | 4.48 2.31–6.66 1.75–7.22 | 23% 18% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.76–4.40 | 3.80 2.24–5.36 1.82–5.78 | 6.38 3.39–9.37 2.57–10.18 | 24% 14% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+