Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.642.85safe0.24–2.180.78–2.491.02–4.67safer0.00–2.430.55–2.720.54–5.15
Shots on target
38%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.284.658.94safe2.42–6.152.91–6.405.33–12.54safer1.93–6.642.45–6.864.38–13.50
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4113.3125.73safe8.49–16.349.75–16.8718.24–33.21safer7.40–17.438.79–17.8316.19–35.26
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.518.7616.27safe4.57–10.456.08–11.4410.65–21.89safer3.74–11.285.34–12.189.08–23.46
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.243.777.01safe1.36–5.122.12–5.423.48–10.55safer0.82–5.671.63–5.922.44–11.58
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.709.59safe2.68–7.102.70–6.705.38–13.81safer2.10–7.682.17–7.244.27–14.91
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.3157.50safe35.52–49.1050.71–64.28safer33.85–50.7749.04–65.95
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction325461786safe258–393395–527653–920safer240–411377–545617–956
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction65.9177.06safe61.88–69.9472.74–81.38safer60.59–71.2371.43–82.69
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9816.0831.06safe12.15–17.8213.13–19.0225.28–36.84safer11.39–18.5812.38–19.7723.77–38.35
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.733.74safe0.85–3.170.63–2.821.49–5.99safer0.55–3.470.34–3.110.90–6.58
Yellow cards
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.825.25safe1.38–3.481.69–3.953.07–7.43safer1.11–3.741.40–4.242.52–7.99
Red cards
15%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction0.190.150.35safe0.03–0.350.00–0.340.00–0.69safer0.00–0.500.00–0.470.00–0.98
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.725.79safe1.63–4.501.17–4.282.80–8.78safer1.24–4.890.74–4.701.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.64 0.78–2.49 0.55–2.72 | 2.85 1.02–4.67 0.54–5.15 | 28% 24% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.15 1.93–6.64 | 4.65 2.91–6.40 2.45–6.86 | 8.94 5.33–12.54 4.38–13.50 | 38% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.41 8.49–16.34 7.40–17.43 | 13.31 9.75–16.87 8.79–17.83 | 25.73 18.24–33.21 16.19–35.26 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 4.57–10.45 3.74–11.28 | 8.76 6.08–11.44 5.34–12.18 | 16.27 10.65–21.89 9.08–23.46 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.36–5.12 0.82–5.67 | 3.77 2.12–5.42 1.63–5.92 | 7.01 3.48–10.55 2.44–11.58 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.10 2.10–7.68 | 4.70 2.70–6.70 2.17–7.24 | 9.59 5.38–13.81 4.27–14.91 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 42.31 35.52–49.10 33.85–50.77 | 57.50 50.71–64.28 49.04–65.95 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 325 258–393 240–411 | 461 395–527 377–545 | 786 653–920 617–956 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.91 61.88–69.94 60.59–71.23 | 77.06 72.74–81.38 71.43–82.69 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 14.98 12.15–17.82 11.39–18.58 | 16.08 13.13–19.02 12.38–19.77 | 31.06 25.28–36.84 23.77–38.35 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.73 0.63–2.82 0.34–3.11 | 3.74 1.49–5.99 0.90–6.58 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.48 1.11–3.74 | 2.82 1.69–3.95 1.40–4.24 | 5.25 3.07–7.43 2.52–7.99 | 34% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.19 0.03–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.35 0.00–0.69 0.00–0.98 | 15% 73% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.70 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+