Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.322.91safe0.63–2.560.46–2.171.09–4.74safer0.38–2.810.24–2.400.61–5.22
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.914.429.33safe3.04–6.772.68–6.165.72–12.93safer2.55–7.262.21–6.634.77–13.89
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8212.4427.26safe10.90–18.758.88–16.0019.77–34.75safer9.80–19.847.92–16.9617.72–36.80
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.927.5816.50safe5.98–11.874.90–10.2610.88–22.12safer5.15–12.704.16–11.009.31–23.69
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.106.82safe1.84–5.601.45–4.763.29–10.36safer1.30–6.150.96–5.252.25–11.40
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.7510.09safe3.13–7.552.75–6.755.87–14.30safer2.55–8.132.21–7.284.77–15.41
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.7647.71safe45.97–59.5540.92–54.49safer44.30–61.2239.25–56.16
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction431367798safe364–499300–433664–932safer346–517283–451629–967
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction65.8266.67safe61.79–69.8562.34–70.99safer60.50–71.1561.03–72.30
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4814.1028.58safe11.65–17.3211.15–17.0422.80–34.36safer10.89–18.0810.40–17.7921.29–35.87
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.084.04safe0.80–3.120.99–3.171.79–6.29safer0.50–3.420.70–3.461.20–6.88
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.524.63safe1.06–3.161.39–3.652.45–6.81safer0.79–3.421.10–3.941.89–7.37
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.150.27safe0.00–0.280.00–0.340.00–0.62safer0.00–0.430.00–0.470.00–0.90
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.426.33safe1.47–4.341.87–4.983.33–9.32safer1.08–4.731.44–5.402.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.56 0.38–2.81 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.24–2.40 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.91 3.04–6.77 2.55–7.26 | 4.42 2.68–6.16 2.21–6.63 | 9.33 5.72–12.93 4.77–13.89 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.82 10.90–18.75 9.80–19.84 | 12.44 8.88–16.00 7.92–16.96 | 27.26 19.77–34.75 17.72–36.80 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 5.98–11.87 5.15–12.70 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 16.50 10.88–22.12 9.31–23.69 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.30–6.15 | 3.10 1.45–4.76 0.96–5.25 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.40 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.55 2.55–8.13 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.21–7.28 | 10.09 5.87–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 52.76 45.97–59.55 44.30–61.22 | 47.71 40.92–54.49 39.25–56.16 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 431 364–499 346–517 | 367 300–433 283–451 | 798 664–932 629–967 | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.82 61.79–69.85 60.50–71.15 | 66.67 62.34–70.99 61.03–72.30 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 14.48 11.65–17.32 10.89–18.08 | 14.10 11.15–17.04 10.40–17.79 | 28.58 22.80–34.36 21.29–35.87 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 2.08 0.99–3.17 0.70–3.46 | 4.04 1.79–6.29 1.20–6.88 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.79–3.42 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 4.63 2.45–6.81 1.89–7.37 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.42 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.40 | 6.33 3.33–9.32 2.52–10.13 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.