Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.542.79safe0.28–2.220.68–2.390.97–4.61safer0.03–2.470.45–2.620.49–5.09
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.728.85safe2.27–5.992.98–6.465.24–12.45safer1.78–6.482.51–6.934.29–13.41
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0313.6426.67safe9.10–16.9510.08–17.2019.18–34.16safer8.01–18.059.12–18.1617.13–36.21
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.848.6416.48safe4.90–10.785.96–11.3210.86–22.10safer4.07–11.615.22–12.069.29–23.67
Blocked shots
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.396.13safe0.86–4.621.74–5.042.60–9.67safer0.32–5.171.25–5.541.56–10.70
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.659.39safe2.53–6.962.65–6.655.18–13.60safer1.96–7.532.11–7.184.07–14.71
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.3244.30safe48.53–62.1137.51–51.08safer46.86–63.7835.84–52.76
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction467332800safe400–534266–399666–933safer382–553248–416630–969
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction65.2864.87safe61.25–69.3160.55–69.20safer59.96–70.6059.24–70.50
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6815.3329.01safe10.84–16.5212.39–18.2823.23–34.79safer10.09–17.2711.64–19.0321.72–36.30
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.863.64safe0.62–2.940.77–2.961.38–5.89safer0.31–3.240.48–3.240.79–6.48
Yellow cards
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.625.20safe1.53–3.621.49–3.753.02–7.37safer1.26–3.891.20–4.042.46–7.93
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.150.30safe0.00–0.310.00–0.330.00–0.64safer0.00–0.460.00–0.470.00–0.93
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.172.825.98safe1.73–4.601.26–4.372.99–8.98safer1.34–4.990.84–4.802.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.54 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 4.72 2.98–6.46 2.51–6.93 | 8.85 5.24–12.45 4.29–13.41 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 13.03 9.10–16.95 8.01–18.05 | 13.64 10.08–17.20 9.12–18.16 | 26.67 19.18–34.16 17.13–36.21 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 7.84 4.90–10.78 4.07–11.61 | 8.64 5.96–11.32 5.22–12.06 | 16.48 10.86–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 0.86–4.62 0.32–5.17 | 3.39 1.74–5.04 1.25–5.54 | 6.13 2.60–9.67 1.56–10.70 | 32% 16% 52% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.53–6.96 1.96–7.53 | 4.65 2.65–6.65 2.11–7.18 | 9.39 5.18–13.60 4.07–14.71 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 55.32 48.53–62.11 46.86–63.78 | 44.30 37.51–51.08 35.84–52.76 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 467 400–534 382–553 | 332 266–399 248–416 | 800 666–933 630–969 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.28 61.25–69.31 59.96–70.60 | 64.87 60.55–69.20 59.24–70.50 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 13.68 10.84–16.52 10.09–17.27 | 15.33 12.39–18.28 11.64–19.03 | 29.01 23.23–34.79 21.72–36.30 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.31–3.24 | 1.86 0.77–2.96 0.48–3.24 | 3.64 1.38–5.89 0.79–6.48 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.57 1.53–3.62 1.26–3.89 | 2.62 1.49–3.75 1.20–4.04 | 5.20 3.02–7.37 2.46–7.93 | 40% 18% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.30 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.93 | 76% |
| GK saves | 3.17 1.73–4.60 1.34–4.99 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.84–4.80 | 5.98 2.99–8.98 2.18–9.79 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.