Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.182.98safe0.83–2.760.33–2.041.15–4.80safer0.58–3.020.10–2.260.68–5.28
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.284.059.33safe3.41–7.142.31–5.795.72–12.93safer2.93–7.631.84–6.264.77–13.89
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4610.5024.96safe10.54–18.396.93–14.0617.47–32.45safer9.45–19.485.97–15.0215.42–34.50
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.747.1316.86safe6.79–12.684.45–9.8111.24–22.49safer5.97–13.513.71–10.559.67–24.05
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.857.02safe2.29–6.051.20–4.513.49–10.56safer1.75–6.600.71–5.002.45–11.59
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.169.59safe3.22–7.642.16–6.165.38–13.81safer2.64–8.221.63–6.704.27–14.92
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction54.6445.99safe47.84–61.4339.21–52.78safer46.18–63.0937.53–54.45
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction463394857safe396–530328–461724–991safer378–548310–478688–1027
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction77.4274.87safe73.39–81.4570.55–79.19safer72.10–82.7469.24–80.50
Fouls
26%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1416.1529.29safe10.31–15.9813.20–19.0923.51–35.07safer9.55–16.7412.45–19.8422.00–36.58
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.503.25safe0.58–2.900.41–2.600.99–5.50safer0.28–3.200.12–2.880.40–6.09
Yellow cards
28%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.814.85safe0.99–3.091.69–3.942.68–7.03safer0.72–3.351.39–4.232.12–7.59
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.266.00safe1.31–4.181.70–4.813.01–8.99safer0.92–4.571.27–5.242.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.83–2.76 0.58–3.02 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.68–5.28 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.28 3.41–7.14 2.93–7.63 | 4.05 2.31–5.79 1.84–6.26 | 9.33 5.72–12.93 4.77–13.89 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.46 10.54–18.39 9.45–19.48 | 10.50 6.93–14.06 5.97–15.02 | 24.96 17.47–32.45 15.42–34.50 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.74 6.79–12.68 5.97–13.51 | 7.13 4.45–9.81 3.71–10.55 | 16.86 11.24–22.49 9.67–24.05 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.75–6.60 | 2.85 1.20–4.51 0.71–5.00 | 7.02 3.49–10.56 2.45–11.59 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.64 2.64–8.22 | 4.16 2.16–6.16 1.63–6.70 | 9.59 5.38–13.81 4.27–14.92 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 54.64 47.84–61.43 46.18–63.09 | 45.99 39.21–52.78 37.53–54.45 | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 463 396–530 378–548 | 394 328–461 310–478 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.42 73.39–81.45 72.10–82.74 | 74.87 70.55–79.19 69.24–80.50 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 13.14 10.31–15.98 9.55–16.74 | 16.15 13.20–19.09 12.45–19.84 | 29.29 23.51–35.07 22.00–36.58 | 26% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.88 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.72–3.35 | 2.81 1.69–3.94 1.39–4.23 | 4.85 2.68–7.03 2.12–7.59 | 28% 18% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.24 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.