Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
13%
19%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction0.872.203.07safe0.00–1.841.35–3.051.24–4.89safer0.00–2.091.12–3.280.76–5.37
Shots on target
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.325.208.52safe1.46–5.183.46–6.954.92–12.13safer0.97–5.673.00–7.413.96–13.08
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3615.8526.21safe6.43–14.2812.29–19.4118.72–33.69safer5.34–15.3711.33–20.3716.67–35.75
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.2410.7016.94safe3.29–9.188.02–13.3911.32–22.56safer2.47–10.017.29–14.129.75–24.13
Blocked shots
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.674.747.41safe0.78–4.553.09–6.393.87–10.94safer0.24–5.092.60–6.892.84–11.98
Corners
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.545.529.06safe1.33–5.753.52–7.524.85–13.27safer0.75–6.332.99–8.053.74–14.38
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction36.7162.86safe29.92–43.5056.07–69.64safer28.25–45.1754.40–71.32
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction300519819safe233–367453–586685–953safer214–385435–603650–988
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction60.9579.02safe56.92–64.9874.70–83.35safer55.63–66.2773.39–84.66
Fouls
74%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2312.3728.60safe13.40–19.079.42–15.3122.82–34.38safer12.64–19.838.67–16.0621.31–35.89
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.034.04safe0.85–3.170.94–3.121.79–6.29safer0.55–3.470.65–3.411.20–6.88
Yellow cards
52%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.774.15safe1.33–3.430.65–2.901.97–6.33safer1.06–3.690.35–3.191.42–6.89
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.100.26safe0.00–0.310.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
63%
15%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.235.79safe2.12–4.990.68–3.792.80–8.78safer1.73–5.380.25–4.211.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.87 0.00–1.84 0.00–2.09 | 2.20 1.35–3.05 1.12–3.28 | 3.07 1.24–4.89 0.76–5.37 | 13% 19% 68% |
| Shots on target | 3.32 1.46–5.18 0.97–5.67 | 5.20 3.46–6.95 3.00–7.41 | 8.52 4.92–12.13 3.96–13.08 | 20% 68% |
| Total shots | 10.36 6.43–14.28 5.34–15.37 | 15.85 12.29–19.41 11.33–20.37 | 26.21 18.72–33.69 16.67–35.75 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.24 3.29–9.18 2.47–10.01 | 10.70 8.02–13.39 7.29–14.12 | 16.94 11.32–22.56 9.75–24.13 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.67 0.78–4.55 0.24–5.09 | 4.74 3.09–6.39 2.60–6.89 | 7.41 3.87–10.94 2.84–11.98 | 17% 72% |
| Corners | 3.54 1.33–5.75 0.75–6.33 | 5.52 3.52–7.52 2.99–8.05 | 9.06 4.85–13.27 3.74–14.38 | 20% 69% |
| Possession % | 36.71 29.92–43.50 28.25–45.17 | 62.86 56.07–69.64 54.40–71.32 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 300 233–367 214–385 | 519 453–586 435–603 | 819 685–953 650–988 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.95 56.92–64.98 55.63–66.27 | 79.02 74.70–83.35 73.39–84.66 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 16.23 13.40–19.07 12.64–19.83 | 12.37 9.42–15.31 8.67–16.06 | 28.60 22.82–34.38 21.31–35.89 | 74% 21% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 2.03 0.94–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 4.04 1.79–6.29 1.20–6.88 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.06–3.69 | 1.77 0.65–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 4.15 1.97–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 52% 20% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.55 2.12–4.99 1.73–5.38 | 2.23 0.68–3.79 0.25–4.21 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 63% 15% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+