Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.252.79safe0.57–2.500.40–2.110.97–4.61safer0.32–2.760.17–2.340.49–5.09
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.349.26safe3.06–6.782.60–6.085.65–12.86safer2.57–7.272.13–6.554.70–13.82
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6112.5826.19safe9.68–17.539.02–16.1418.70–33.68safer8.59–18.628.06–17.1016.65–35.73
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.887.5816.46safe5.94–11.824.90–10.2610.84–22.08safer5.11–12.654.16–11.009.27–23.65
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.357.07safe1.83–5.601.70–5.013.54–10.61safer1.29–6.141.21–5.502.50–11.64
Corners
66%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.104.2910.39safe3.89–8.312.29–6.296.18–14.60safer3.31–8.891.76–6.825.07–15.71
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.2449.36safe44.45–58.0342.58–56.15safer42.78–59.7040.91–57.82
Passes
54%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction423410833safe356–491343–476700–967safer338–509326–494664–1003
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction68.3170.84safe64.28–72.3466.52–75.17safer62.98–73.6365.21–76.48
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6915.4129.10safe10.85–16.5312.46–18.3523.32–34.88safer10.10–17.2811.72–19.1021.81–36.39
Offsides
64%
17%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.621.384.00safe1.46–3.790.28–2.471.75–6.25safer1.16–4.090.00–2.761.16–6.84
Yellow cards
34%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.354.38safe0.97–3.071.23–3.482.20–6.55safer0.71–3.340.93–3.781.64–7.11
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.60safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.155.90safe1.32–4.191.59–4.702.91–8.90safer0.93–4.581.17–5.132.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.50 0.32–2.76 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.78 2.57–7.27 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 9.26 5.65–12.86 4.70–13.82 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.61 9.68–17.53 8.59–18.62 | 12.58 9.02–16.14 8.06–17.10 | 26.19 18.70–33.68 16.65–35.73 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 16.46 10.84–22.08 9.27–23.65 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.83–5.60 1.29–6.14 | 3.35 1.70–5.01 1.21–5.50 | 7.07 3.54–10.61 2.50–11.64 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 6.10 3.89–8.31 3.31–8.89 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 10.39 6.18–14.60 5.07–15.71 | 66% 24% |
| Possession % | 51.24 44.45–58.03 42.78–59.70 | 49.36 42.58–56.15 40.91–57.82 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 423 356–491 338–509 | 410 343–476 326–494 | 833 700–967 664–1003 | 54% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.31 64.28–72.34 62.98–73.63 | 70.84 66.52–75.17 65.21–76.48 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 13.69 10.85–16.53 10.10–17.28 | 15.41 12.46–18.35 11.72–19.10 | 29.10 23.32–34.88 21.81–36.39 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 2.62 1.46–3.79 1.16–4.09 | 1.38 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 4.00 1.75–6.25 1.16–6.84 | 64% 17% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.71–3.34 | 2.35 1.23–3.48 0.93–3.78 | 4.38 2.20–6.55 1.64–7.11 | 34% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.17–5.13 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.