Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.612.69safe0.11–2.050.75–2.460.87–4.51safer0.00–2.300.53–2.690.39–4.99
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.465.028.48safe1.60–5.323.28–6.774.88–12.09safer1.11–5.812.82–7.233.92–13.04
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4414.2824.72safe6.52–14.3710.71–17.8417.23–32.21safer5.43–15.469.75–18.8015.18–34.26
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction7.008.3615.36safe4.06–9.945.68–11.049.74–20.98safer3.23–10.774.94–11.788.17–22.55
Blocked shots
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.716.33safe0.74–4.502.05–5.362.79–9.86safer0.20–5.051.56–5.851.76–10.90
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.374.919.28safe2.16–6.592.91–6.915.06–13.49safer1.58–7.162.37–7.443.96–14.60
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction40.5360.08safe33.74–47.3253.29–66.86safer32.07–48.9951.62–68.53
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction340492832safe273–407426–559699–966safer255–425408–576663–1002
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction57.6773.67safe53.64–61.7069.34–77.99safer52.35–63.0068.03–79.30
Fouls
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1112.4926.60safe11.27–16.959.55–15.4320.82–32.38safer10.51–17.708.80–16.1819.31–33.89
Offsides
69%
14%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction3.401.775.17safe2.24–4.560.67–2.862.92–7.42safer1.94–4.870.39–3.152.33–8.01
Yellow cards
44%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.914.03safe1.08–3.170.78–3.041.86–6.21safer0.81–3.440.49–3.331.30–6.77
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.130.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.320.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.385.47safe1.65–4.520.82–3.942.47–8.46safer1.26–4.910.40–4.361.66–9.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.61 0.75–2.46 0.53–2.69 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 26% 25% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.46 1.60–5.32 1.11–5.81 | 5.02 3.28–6.77 2.82–7.23 | 8.48 4.88–12.09 3.92–13.04 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 10.44 6.52–14.37 5.43–15.46 | 14.28 10.71–17.84 9.75–18.80 | 24.72 17.23–32.21 15.18–34.26 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.00 4.06–9.94 3.23–10.77 | 8.36 5.68–11.04 4.94–11.78 | 15.36 9.74–20.98 8.17–22.55 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 2.62 0.74–4.50 0.20–5.05 | 3.71 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 6.33 2.79–9.86 1.76–10.90 | 26% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 4.37 2.16–6.59 1.58–7.16 | 4.91 2.91–6.91 2.37–7.44 | 9.28 5.06–13.49 3.96–14.60 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 40.53 33.74–47.32 32.07–48.99 | 60.08 53.29–66.86 51.62–68.53 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 340 273–407 255–425 | 492 426–559 408–576 | 832 699–966 663–1002 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 57.67 53.64–61.70 52.35–63.00 | 73.67 69.34–77.99 68.03–79.30 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 14.11 11.27–16.95 10.51–17.70 | 12.49 9.55–15.43 8.80–16.18 | 26.60 20.82–32.38 19.31–33.89 | 59% 34% |
| Offsides | 3.40 2.24–4.56 1.94–4.87 | 1.77 0.67–2.86 0.39–3.15 | 5.17 2.92–7.42 2.33–8.01 | 69% 14% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 4.03 1.86–6.21 1.30–6.77 | 44% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 2.38 0.82–3.94 0.40–4.36 | 5.47 2.47–8.46 1.66–9.27 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+