Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.182.75safe0.60–2.530.33–2.040.93–4.57safer0.35–2.780.10–2.270.45–5.05
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.239.24safe3.15–6.872.49–5.985.64–12.85safer2.66–7.362.03–6.444.68–13.80
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9212.4927.41safe10.99–18.848.93–16.0519.92–34.89safer9.90–19.937.97–17.0117.87–36.94
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.317.0216.33safe6.37–12.254.34–9.7010.70–21.95safer5.54–13.083.60–10.439.14–23.52
Blocked shots
60%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.892.706.59safe2.01–5.771.05–4.363.06–10.13safer1.47–6.320.56–4.852.02–11.17
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.8110.45safe3.43–7.852.81–6.816.24–14.66safer2.85–8.432.28–7.345.13–15.77
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.3149.16safe43.52–57.1142.38–55.95safer41.86–58.7740.70–57.62
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction434409843safe367–501342–475709–976safer349–519325–493673–1012
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction67.5071.22safe63.47–71.5366.89–75.54safer62.17–72.8265.59–76.85
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7715.8029.57safe10.93–16.6012.86–18.7523.79–35.35safer10.17–17.3612.11–19.5022.28–36.86
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.993.92safe0.77–3.090.90–3.091.67–6.18safer0.47–3.390.61–3.371.08–6.76
Yellow cards
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.664.87safe1.16–3.261.54–3.792.70–7.05safer0.89–3.521.24–4.092.14–7.61
Red cards
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.190.32safe0.00–0.290.00–0.380.00–0.67safer0.00–0.440.00–0.510.00–0.95
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.206.07safe1.43–4.311.65–4.763.08–9.07safer1.05–4.691.22–5.192.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.53 0.35–2.78 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.01 3.15–6.87 2.66–7.36 | 4.23 2.49–5.98 2.03–6.44 | 9.24 5.64–12.85 4.68–13.80 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.92 10.99–18.84 9.90–19.93 | 12.49 8.93–16.05 7.97–17.01 | 27.41 19.92–34.89 17.87–36.94 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.37–12.25 5.54–13.08 | 7.02 4.34–9.70 3.60–10.43 | 16.33 10.70–21.95 9.14–23.52 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.01–5.77 1.47–6.32 | 2.70 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 6.59 3.06–10.13 2.02–11.17 | 60% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.85 2.85–8.43 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.28–7.34 | 10.45 6.24–14.66 5.13–15.77 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 50.31 43.52–57.11 41.86–58.77 | 49.16 42.38–55.95 40.70–57.62 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 434 367–501 349–519 | 409 342–475 325–493 | 843 709–976 673–1012 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.50 63.47–71.53 62.17–72.82 | 71.22 66.89–75.54 65.59–76.85 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.77 10.93–16.60 10.17–17.36 | 15.80 12.86–18.75 12.11–19.50 | 29.57 23.79–35.35 22.28–36.86 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.99 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.37 | 3.92 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.76 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.16–3.26 0.89–3.52 | 2.66 1.54–3.79 1.24–4.09 | 4.87 2.70–7.05 2.14–7.61 | 33% 18% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.38 0.00–0.51 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 74% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.31 1.05–4.69 | 3.20 1.65–4.76 1.22–5.19 | 6.07 3.08–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.