Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
20%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.162.203.36safe0.19–2.121.35–3.061.53–5.18safer0.00–2.381.12–3.281.06–5.66
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.865.839.69safe2.00–5.734.08–7.576.09–13.30safer1.51–6.223.62–8.045.13–14.25
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9217.3728.29safe7.00–14.8413.80–20.9320.80–35.77safer5.90–15.9412.85–21.8918.75–37.83
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction7.1011.6318.73safe4.16–10.048.95–14.3113.10–24.35safer3.33–10.878.21–15.0511.54–25.92
Blocked shots
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.125.278.39safe1.24–5.003.62–6.924.85–11.92safer0.69–5.543.12–7.413.82–12.96
Corners
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction4.286.3510.63safe2.07–6.494.35–8.356.41–14.84safer1.49–7.073.81–8.885.31–15.95
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.4457.97safe36.65–50.2351.18–64.75safer34.98–51.9049.51–66.42
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction400505904safe332–467438–571770–1038safer314–485421–589735–1073
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction64.4476.45safe60.41–68.4772.12–80.77safer59.12–69.7670.81–82.08
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4111.1122.52safe8.57–14.258.17–14.0616.74–28.31safer7.82–15.007.42–14.8115.24–29.81
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.863.87safe0.85–3.170.76–2.951.62–6.12safer0.55–3.470.48–3.241.03–6.71
Yellow cards
40%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.863.77safe0.86–2.960.73–2.991.59–5.95safer0.59–3.220.44–3.281.03–6.50
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.102.776.87safe2.67–5.541.21–4.323.88–9.86safer2.28–5.930.79–4.753.07–10.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.12 0.00–2.38 | 2.20 1.35–3.06 1.12–3.28 | 3.36 1.53–5.18 1.06–5.66 | 19% 20% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 2.00–5.73 1.51–6.22 | 5.83 4.08–7.57 3.62–8.04 | 9.69 6.09–13.30 5.13–14.25 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 10.92 7.00–14.84 5.90–15.94 | 17.37 13.80–20.93 12.85–21.89 | 28.29 20.80–35.77 18.75–37.83 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 7.10 4.16–10.04 3.33–10.87 | 11.63 8.95–14.31 8.21–15.05 | 18.73 13.10–24.35 11.54–25.92 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.00 0.69–5.54 | 5.27 3.62–6.92 3.12–7.41 | 8.39 4.85–11.92 3.82–12.96 | 18% 72% |
| Corners | 4.28 2.07–6.49 1.49–7.07 | 6.35 4.35–8.35 3.81–8.88 | 10.63 6.41–14.84 5.31–15.95 | 21% 68% |
| Possession % | 43.44 36.65–50.23 34.98–51.90 | 57.97 51.18–64.75 49.51–66.42 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 400 332–467 314–485 | 505 438–571 421–589 | 904 770–1038 735–1073 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.44 60.41–68.47 59.12–69.76 | 76.45 72.12–80.77 70.81–82.08 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.57–14.25 7.82–15.00 | 11.11 8.17–14.06 7.42–14.81 | 22.52 16.74–28.31 15.24–29.81 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.86 0.76–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.03–6.50 | 40% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 4.10 2.67–5.54 2.28–5.93 | 2.77 1.21–4.32 0.79–4.75 | 6.87 3.88–9.86 3.07–10.68 | 62% 14% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.