Championship·Regular Season - 16·
Championship·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.332.74safe0.44–2.370.48–2.190.92–4.56safer0.19–2.620.25–2.420.44–5.04
Shots on target
48%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.248.87safe2.77–6.492.50–5.985.26–12.47safer2.28–6.982.03–6.454.31–13.43
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7512.4826.22safe9.82–17.678.92–16.0418.74–33.71safer8.73–18.767.96–17.0016.69–35.76
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.668.9617.61safe5.72–11.606.27–11.6411.99–23.24safer4.89–12.435.54–12.3710.42–24.80
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.595.97safe1.49–5.260.94–4.252.43–9.50safer0.95–5.800.45–4.741.40–10.54
Corners
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.545.2910.83safe3.32–7.753.29–7.296.62–15.05safer2.75–8.332.76–7.835.51–16.15
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.3548.14safe44.56–58.1441.36–54.93safer42.89–59.8139.69–56.60
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction429380809safe361–496314–447675–943safer343–514296–464640–978
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction66.7469.46safe62.72–70.7765.14–73.79safer61.42–72.0763.83–75.10
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8611.7423.60safe9.02–14.708.80–14.6817.82–29.38safer8.27–15.468.05–15.4316.31–30.89
Offsides
16%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction2.073.976.04safe0.91–3.232.88–5.063.79–8.30safer0.61–3.542.59–5.353.20–8.89
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.713.28safe0.53–2.630.58–2.831.11–5.46safer0.26–2.890.28–3.130.55–6.02
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.236.12safe1.45–4.321.68–4.793.12–9.11safer1.06–4.711.25–5.212.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.37 0.19–2.62 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 39% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.49 2.28–6.98 | 4.24 2.50–5.98 2.03–6.45 | 8.87 5.26–12.47 4.31–13.43 | 48% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.75 9.82–17.67 8.73–18.76 | 12.48 8.92–16.04 7.96–17.00 | 26.22 18.74–33.71 16.69–35.76 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.66 5.72–11.60 4.89–12.43 | 8.96 6.27–11.64 5.54–12.37 | 17.61 11.99–23.24 10.42–24.80 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.49–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 2.59 0.94–4.25 0.45–4.74 | 5.97 2.43–9.50 1.40–10.54 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.32–7.75 2.75–8.33 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.76–7.83 | 10.83 6.62–15.05 5.51–16.15 | 47% 41% |
| Possession % | 51.35 44.56–58.14 42.89–59.81 | 48.14 41.36–54.93 39.69–56.60 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 429 361–496 343–514 | 380 314–447 296–464 | 809 675–943 640–978 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.74 62.72–70.77 61.42–72.07 | 69.46 65.14–73.79 63.83–75.10 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.86 9.02–14.70 8.27–15.46 | 11.74 8.80–14.68 8.05–15.43 | 23.60 17.82–29.38 16.31–30.89 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.54 | 3.97 2.88–5.06 2.59–5.35 | 6.04 3.79–8.30 3.20–8.89 | 16% 71% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.89 | 1.71 0.58–2.83 0.28–3.13 | 3.28 1.11–5.46 0.55–6.02 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.21 | 6.12 3.12–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.