Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.122.66safe0.56–2.500.27–1.980.83–4.48safer0.31–2.750.04–2.210.35–4.96
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.768.61safe2.99–6.712.02–5.515.01–12.22safer2.50–7.201.56–5.974.05–13.17
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0210.7224.74safe10.09–17.947.16–14.2817.25–32.22safer9.00–19.046.20–15.2415.20–34.28
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.127.4716.59safe6.18–12.064.79–10.1510.97–22.22safer5.35–12.894.05–10.899.40–23.78
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.916.93safe2.13–5.901.26–4.573.39–10.46safer1.59–6.440.77–5.062.36–11.50
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.149.57safe3.22–7.642.14–6.145.36–13.78safer2.64–8.221.61–6.674.25–14.89
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.7749.21safe43.98–57.5642.43–56.00safer42.31–59.2340.76–57.67
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction502459961safe435–569393–525827–1095safer417–587375–543792–1130
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction70.8572.98safe66.82–74.8868.65–77.30safer65.53–76.1867.34–78.61
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.679.7421.41safe8.83–14.506.80–12.6915.63–27.19safer8.07–15.266.05–13.4414.13–28.70
Offsides
23%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.694.35safe0.50–2.831.60–3.782.10–6.61safer0.20–3.131.31–4.071.51–7.20
Yellow cards
40%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.983.97safe0.94–3.040.86–3.111.79–6.15safer0.67–3.300.56–3.401.24–6.71
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.315.89safe1.15–4.021.76–4.872.90–8.89safer0.76–4.411.33–5.292.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.66 0.83–4.48 0.35–4.96 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.71 2.50–7.20 | 3.76 2.02–5.51 1.56–5.97 | 8.61 5.01–12.22 4.05–13.17 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.02 10.09–17.94 9.00–19.04 | 10.72 7.16–14.28 6.20–15.24 | 24.74 17.25–32.22 15.20–34.28 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.18–12.06 5.35–12.89 | 7.47 4.79–10.15 4.05–10.89 | 16.59 10.97–22.22 9.40–23.78 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.13–5.90 1.59–6.44 | 2.91 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 6.93 3.39–10.46 2.36–11.50 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.64 2.64–8.22 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.61–6.67 | 9.57 5.36–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 50.77 43.98–57.56 42.31–59.23 | 49.21 42.43–56.00 40.76–57.67 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 502 435–569 417–587 | 459 393–525 375–543 | 961 827–1095 792–1130 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.85 66.82–74.88 65.53–76.18 | 72.98 68.65–77.30 67.34–78.61 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.50 8.07–15.26 | 9.74 6.80–12.69 6.05–13.44 | 21.41 15.63–27.19 14.13–28.70 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.50–2.83 0.20–3.13 | 2.69 1.60–3.78 1.31–4.07 | 4.35 2.10–6.61 1.51–7.20 | 23% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.67–3.30 | 1.98 0.86–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 40% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 3.31 1.76–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 5.89 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.