Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.282.60safe0.35–2.290.42–2.130.78–4.42safer0.10–2.540.20–2.360.30–4.90
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.028.00safe2.11–5.832.28–5.774.39–11.60safer1.62–6.321.82–6.233.44–12.56
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9311.5525.48safe10.01–17.867.99–15.1117.99–32.97safer8.92–18.957.03–16.0715.94–35.02
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.547.7717.30safe6.60–12.485.09–10.4511.68–22.93safer5.77–13.314.35–11.1910.11–24.49
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.547.64safe2.21–5.981.89–5.204.10–11.17safer1.67–6.521.40–5.693.07–12.21
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.579.99safe3.21–7.642.57–6.575.78–14.21safer2.64–8.212.03–7.104.67–15.31
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.0455.52safe38.25–51.8348.73–62.30safer36.58–53.5047.06–63.98
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction387452839safe320–454386–519706–973safer301–472368–536670–1009
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction62.4370.77safe58.40–66.4666.45–75.09safer57.11–67.7565.14–76.40
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3711.0723.45safe9.54–15.218.13–14.0217.67–29.23safer8.78–15.977.38–14.7716.16–30.73
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.653.21safe0.41–2.730.55–2.740.96–5.47safer0.10–3.030.27–3.030.37–6.06
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.913.46safe0.49–2.590.79–3.041.28–5.64safer0.23–2.860.49–3.330.72–6.19
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.775.38safe1.17–4.051.22–4.332.39–8.37safer0.79–4.430.79–4.751.58–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.83 1.62–6.32 | 4.02 2.28–5.77 1.82–6.23 | 8.00 4.39–11.60 3.44–12.56 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.93 10.01–17.86 8.92–18.95 | 11.55 7.99–15.11 7.03–16.07 | 25.48 17.99–32.97 15.94–35.02 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 6.60–12.48 5.77–13.31 | 7.77 5.09–10.45 4.35–11.19 | 17.30 11.68–22.93 10.11–24.49 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.10 2.21–5.98 1.67–6.52 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.07–12.21 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.03–7.10 | 9.99 5.78–14.21 4.67–15.31 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 45.04 38.25–51.83 36.58–53.50 | 55.52 48.73–62.30 47.06–63.98 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 387 320–454 301–472 | 452 386–519 368–536 | 839 706–973 670–1009 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.43 58.40–66.46 57.11–67.75 | 70.77 66.45–75.09 65.14–76.40 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 11.07 8.13–14.02 7.38–14.77 | 23.45 17.67–29.23 16.16–30.73 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.10–3.03 | 1.65 0.55–2.74 0.27–3.03 | 3.21 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.06 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.91 0.79–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.46 1.28–5.64 0.72–6.19 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.05 0.79–4.43 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 5.38 2.39–8.37 1.58–9.19 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+