Predicted match statistics
Goals
68%
18%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.391.003.40safe1.43–3.360.15–1.861.57–5.22safer1.17–3.610.00–2.081.09–5.70
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.763.4710.23safe4.90–8.621.72–5.216.62–13.83safer4.41–9.111.26–5.685.67–14.79
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.699.6526.34safe12.77–20.626.08–13.2118.85–33.82safer11.68–21.715.12–14.1716.80–35.87
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.746.0517.79safe8.80–14.683.37–8.7312.17–23.41safer7.97–15.512.63–9.4710.60–24.98
Blocked shots
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.242.506.74safe2.36–6.130.85–4.153.21–10.28safer1.82–6.670.35–4.642.17–11.31
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.713.5510.26safe4.50–8.921.55–5.556.04–14.47safer3.92–9.501.01–6.084.94–15.58
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.9545.00safe49.16–62.7438.22–51.79safer47.49–64.4136.55–53.46
Passes
84%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction518396914safe450–585330–463780–1048safer432–603312–480744–1083
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction73.5370.80safe69.50–77.5666.48–75.12safer68.21–78.8565.17–76.43
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7712.4424.21safe8.93–14.609.50–15.3918.42–29.99safer8.17–15.368.75–16.1316.92–31.49
Offsides
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.306.23safe1.78–4.102.20–4.393.98–8.49safer1.48–4.401.91–4.683.39–9.08
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.263.70safe0.40–2.491.13–3.391.52–5.88safer0.13–2.760.84–3.680.96–6.44
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.946.31safe0.94–3.812.38–5.503.32–9.30safer0.55–4.201.96–5.922.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.39 1.43–3.36 1.17–3.61 | 1.00 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.08 | 3.40 1.57–5.22 1.09–5.70 | 68% 18% 14% |
| Shots on target | 6.76 4.90–8.62 4.41–9.11 | 3.47 1.72–5.21 1.26–5.68 | 10.23 6.62–13.83 5.67–14.79 | 81% |
| Total shots | 16.69 12.77–20.62 11.68–21.71 | 9.65 6.08–13.21 5.12–14.17 | 26.34 18.85–33.82 16.80–35.87 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.74 8.80–14.68 7.97–15.51 | 6.05 3.37–8.73 2.63–9.47 | 17.79 12.17–23.41 10.60–24.98 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 2.36–6.13 1.82–6.67 | 2.50 0.85–4.15 0.35–4.64 | 6.74 3.21–10.28 2.17–11.31 | 68% 19% |
| Corners | 6.71 4.50–8.92 3.92–9.50 | 3.55 1.55–5.55 1.01–6.08 | 10.26 6.04–14.47 4.94–15.58 | 80% |
| Possession % | 55.95 49.16–62.74 47.49–64.41 | 45.00 38.22–51.79 36.55–53.46 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 518 450–585 432–603 | 396 330–463 312–480 | 914 780–1048 744–1083 | 84% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.53 69.50–77.56 68.21–78.85 | 70.80 66.48–75.12 65.17–76.43 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.77 8.93–14.60 8.17–15.36 | 12.44 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.13 | 24.21 18.42–29.99 16.92–31.49 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.94 1.78–4.10 1.48–4.40 | 3.30 2.20–4.39 1.91–4.68 | 6.23 3.98–8.49 3.39–9.08 | 36% 16% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.40–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.96–6.44 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.94 2.38–5.50 1.96–5.92 | 6.31 3.32–9.30 2.51–10.12 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.