Championship·Regular Season - 16·
Championship·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.142.47safe0.37–2.310.28–1.990.65–4.30safer0.12–2.560.05–2.220.17–4.77
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.273.988.25safe2.40–6.132.24–5.724.64–11.85safer1.91–6.621.77–6.193.69–12.81
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5511.8525.40safe9.62–17.478.29–15.4117.91–32.89safer8.53–18.577.33–16.3715.86–34.94
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.277.7016.97safe6.32–12.215.02–10.3811.35–22.59safer5.50–13.044.29–11.129.78–24.16
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.427.30safe2.00–5.761.77–5.083.77–10.84safer1.45–6.311.28–5.572.73–11.87
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.7710.45safe3.46–7.892.77–6.776.23–14.66safer2.89–8.462.24–7.315.13–15.77
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.2246.74safe46.43–60.0139.95–53.52safer44.76–61.6838.28–55.19
Passes
76%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction433346779safe366–500280–413646–913safer348–518262–430610–949
Pass accuracy %
52%
42%
homeawayprediction67.3766.40safe63.34–71.4062.07–70.72safer62.05–72.6960.76–72.03
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4211.9523.37safe8.58–14.259.01–14.9017.59–29.15safer7.82–15.018.26–15.6416.08–30.66
Offsides
53%
19%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.481.794.27safe1.32–3.640.70–2.892.02–6.52safer1.02–3.940.41–3.171.43–7.11
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.424.30safe0.83–2.931.29–3.552.12–6.48safer0.57–3.201.00–3.841.56–7.03
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.005.70safe1.27–4.141.44–4.552.71–8.69safer0.88–4.531.02–4.981.90–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.47 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.77 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.40–6.13 1.91–6.62 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 8.25 4.64–11.85 3.69–12.81 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.55 9.62–17.47 8.53–18.57 | 11.85 8.29–15.41 7.33–16.37 | 25.40 17.91–32.89 15.86–34.94 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.27 6.32–12.21 5.50–13.04 | 7.70 5.02–10.38 4.29–11.12 | 16.97 11.35–22.59 9.78–24.16 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.76 1.45–6.31 | 3.42 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.30 3.77–10.84 2.73–11.87 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.67 3.46–7.89 2.89–8.46 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.24–7.31 | 10.45 6.23–14.66 5.13–15.77 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 53.22 46.43–60.01 44.76–61.68 | 46.74 39.95–53.52 38.28–55.19 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 433 366–500 348–518 | 346 280–413 262–430 | 779 646–913 610–949 | 76% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.37 63.34–71.40 62.05–72.69 | 66.40 62.07–70.72 60.76–72.03 | — | 52% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.58–14.25 7.82–15.01 | 11.95 9.01–14.90 8.26–15.64 | 23.37 17.59–29.15 16.08–30.66 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.48 1.32–3.64 1.02–3.94 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.17 | 4.27 2.02–6.52 1.43–7.11 | 53% 19% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.42 1.29–3.55 1.00–3.84 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.56–7.03 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.00 1.44–4.55 1.02–4.98 | 5.70 2.71–8.69 1.90–9.50 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.