Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.112.59safe0.52–2.450.25–1.960.77–4.41safer0.26–2.700.02–2.190.29–4.89
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.283.738.01safe2.42–6.141.98–5.474.40–11.61safer1.93–6.631.52–5.943.45–12.57
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5611.5224.09safe8.64–16.497.96–15.0916.60–31.58safer7.55–17.587.00–16.0514.55–33.63
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.887.8515.73safe4.94–10.825.17–10.5410.11–21.36safer4.11–11.654.44–11.278.54–22.92
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.823.467.28safe1.94–5.711.80–5.113.75–10.82safer1.40–6.251.31–5.602.71–11.85
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.169.17safe2.80–7.222.16–6.164.96–13.38safer2.22–7.801.63–6.693.85–14.49
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.9547.26safe47.16–60.7440.48–54.05safer45.49–62.4138.81–55.72
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction529448977safe462–597382–515844–1111safer444–615364–532808–1147
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction75.0476.52safe71.01–79.0772.19–80.84safer69.72–80.3670.88–82.15
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2611.4024.66safe10.42–16.108.46–14.3518.88–30.44safer9.67–16.857.71–15.0917.37–31.95
Offsides
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.514.39safe0.72–3.041.41–3.602.13–6.64safer0.42–3.341.13–3.891.55–7.23
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.913.61safe0.65–2.750.78–3.031.43–5.79safer0.39–3.020.49–3.330.87–6.34
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.745.34safe1.16–4.031.18–4.302.35–8.33safer0.77–4.420.76–4.721.53–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 3.73 1.98–5.47 1.52–5.94 | 8.01 4.40–11.61 3.45–12.57 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.64–16.49 7.55–17.58 | 11.52 7.96–15.09 7.00–16.05 | 24.09 16.60–31.58 14.55–33.63 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 7.88 4.94–10.82 4.11–11.65 | 7.85 5.17–10.54 4.44–11.27 | 15.73 10.11–21.36 8.54–22.92 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.94–5.71 1.40–6.25 | 3.46 1.80–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 7.28 3.75–10.82 2.71–11.85 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.22 2.22–7.80 | 4.16 2.16–6.16 1.63–6.69 | 9.17 4.96–13.38 3.85–14.49 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 53.95 47.16–60.74 45.49–62.41 | 47.26 40.48–54.05 38.81–55.72 | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 529 462–597 444–615 | 448 382–515 364–532 | 977 844–1111 808–1147 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.04 71.01–79.07 69.72–80.36 | 76.52 72.19–80.84 70.88–82.15 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 13.26 10.42–16.10 9.67–16.85 | 11.40 8.46–14.35 7.71–15.09 | 24.66 18.88–30.44 17.37–31.95 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 2.51 1.41–3.60 1.13–3.89 | 4.39 2.13–6.64 1.55–7.23 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 1.91 0.78–3.03 0.49–3.33 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.34 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 2.74 1.18–4.30 0.76–4.72 | 5.34 2.35–8.33 1.53–9.14 | 39% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.