Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.112.88safe0.80–2.740.26–1.971.06–4.71safer0.55–2.990.03–2.200.58–5.19
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.638.78safe3.29–7.011.89–5.375.18–12.39safer2.80–7.501.42–5.844.22–13.34
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0311.5527.58safe12.11–19.967.99–15.1120.09–35.07safer11.02–21.057.03–16.0718.04–37.12
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.357.6117.96safe7.41–13.294.93–10.2912.34–23.58safer6.58–14.124.19–11.0310.77–25.15
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.373.597.96safe2.49–6.261.94–5.244.43–11.50safer1.95–6.801.45–5.743.39–12.53
Corners
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.474.1010.57safe4.26–8.682.10–6.106.36–14.78safer3.68–9.261.57–6.635.25–15.89
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction60.6538.13safe53.86–67.4431.35–44.92safer52.19–69.1129.68–46.59
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction531328859safe464–598262–395725–993safer446–616244–412690–1029
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction71.9767.97safe67.95–76.0063.64–72.29safer66.65–77.3062.34–73.60
Fouls
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0411.4121.45safe7.21–12.888.46–14.3515.67–27.23safer6.45–13.647.71–15.1014.16–28.74
Offsides
58%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.291.393.68safe1.13–3.450.30–2.481.43–5.94safer0.83–3.750.01–2.770.84–6.52
Yellow cards
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.923.27safe0.30–2.400.79–3.051.09–5.45safer0.03–2.660.50–3.340.53–6.01
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.335.86safe1.09–3.961.78–4.892.86–8.85safer0.70–4.351.35–5.312.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.74 0.55–2.99 | 1.11 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.88 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.19 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.29–7.01 2.80–7.50 | 3.63 1.89–5.37 1.42–5.84 | 8.78 5.18–12.39 4.22–13.34 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 16.03 12.11–19.96 11.02–21.05 | 11.55 7.99–15.11 7.03–16.07 | 27.58 20.09–35.07 18.04–37.12 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.35 7.41–13.29 6.58–14.12 | 7.61 4.93–10.29 4.19–11.03 | 17.96 12.34–23.58 10.77–25.15 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 2.49–6.26 1.95–6.80 | 3.59 1.94–5.24 1.45–5.74 | 7.96 4.43–11.50 3.39–12.53 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 6.47 4.26–8.68 3.68–9.26 | 4.10 2.10–6.10 1.57–6.63 | 10.57 6.36–14.78 5.25–15.89 | 72% 19% |
| Possession % | 60.65 53.86–67.44 52.19–69.11 | 38.13 31.35–44.92 29.68–46.59 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 531 464–598 446–616 | 328 262–395 244–412 | 859 725–993 690–1029 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.97 67.95–76.00 66.65–77.30 | 67.97 63.64–72.29 62.34–73.60 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 10.04 7.21–12.88 6.45–13.64 | 11.41 8.46–14.35 7.71–15.10 | 21.45 15.67–27.23 14.16–28.74 | 34% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.29 1.13–3.45 0.83–3.75 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.68 1.43–5.94 0.84–6.52 | 58% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.30–2.40 0.03–2.66 | 1.92 0.79–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 3.27 1.09–5.45 0.53–6.01 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.31 | 5.86 2.86–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.