Championship·Regular Season - 17·
Championship·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.693.11safe0.46–2.390.83–2.541.29–4.94safer0.21–2.650.61–2.770.81–5.42
Shots on target
39%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.779.21safe2.59–6.313.02–6.515.61–12.82safer2.10–6.802.56–6.974.65–13.77
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4213.0427.46safe10.49–18.349.48–16.6119.97–34.95safer9.40–19.438.52–17.5617.92–37.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.988.8917.87safe6.04–11.926.21–11.5712.25–23.50safer5.21–12.755.47–12.3110.68–25.06
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.888.24safe2.48–6.242.23–5.534.70–11.77safer1.93–6.781.73–6.023.67–12.81
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.604.7610.36safe3.38–7.812.76–6.766.15–14.57safer2.81–8.382.23–7.305.04–15.68
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.4855.11safe38.69–52.2748.32–61.89safer37.02–53.9446.65–63.56
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction401468868safe333–468401–534735–1002safer315–486384–552699–1038
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction69.4274.63safe65.40–73.4570.30–78.95safer64.10–74.7568.99–80.26
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7111.2021.91safe7.87–13.558.26–14.1416.13–27.69safer7.12–14.307.51–14.8914.62–29.20
Offsides
31%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.183.92safe0.58–2.901.09–3.271.66–6.17safer0.27–3.200.80–3.561.07–6.76
Yellow cards
33%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.813.33safe0.48–2.570.68–2.941.15–5.51safer0.21–2.840.39–3.230.60–6.07
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
41%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.995.91safe1.49–4.361.43–4.552.92–8.91safer1.10–4.751.01–4.972.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 1.69 0.83–2.54 0.61–2.77 | 3.11 1.29–4.94 0.81–5.42 | 33% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 4.77 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 9.21 5.61–12.82 4.65–13.77 | 39% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 14.42 10.49–18.34 9.40–19.43 | 13.04 9.48–16.61 8.52–17.56 | 27.46 19.97–34.95 17.92–37.00 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.98 6.04–11.92 5.21–12.75 | 8.89 6.21–11.57 5.47–12.31 | 17.87 12.25–23.50 10.68–25.06 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.24 1.93–6.78 | 3.88 2.23–5.53 1.73–6.02 | 8.24 4.70–11.77 3.67–12.81 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.60 3.38–7.81 2.81–8.38 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.23–7.30 | 10.36 6.15–14.57 5.04–15.68 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.48 38.69–52.27 37.02–53.94 | 55.11 48.32–61.89 46.65–63.56 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 401 333–468 315–486 | 468 401–534 384–552 | 868 735–1002 699–1038 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.42 65.40–73.45 64.10–74.75 | 74.63 70.30–78.95 68.99–80.26 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 10.71 7.87–13.55 7.12–14.30 | 11.20 8.26–14.14 7.51–14.89 | 21.91 16.13–27.69 14.62–29.20 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.27–3.20 | 2.18 1.09–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 3.92 1.66–6.17 1.07–6.76 | 31% 20% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.48–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 1.81 0.68–2.94 0.39–3.23 | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.60–6.07 | 33% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 2.99 1.43–4.55 1.01–4.97 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 41% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+